中国低碳技术投资的优化控制：驱动因素、运行机制和控制系统

The Kyoto Protocol will end in 2020, thus implying the following years would be crucial to form a new treaty. Definitely, great efforts should be taken in studying the related topics of global climate negotiations for the Chinese government without any delay. Noteworthy, technology transfer is approaching. However, an important problem remains unresolved. How can China promote domestic low-carbon technologies by taking advantage of technology transfer? To this end, this project aims to provide fresh insights from the perspective of system sciences, highlighting the uniform topic of optimizing control of China’s low-carbon technological investments. The project begins with structuring the complicated low-carbon technological investment systems, exploring the driving forces, investigating the underlining mechanisms, and thereby revealing the underlining operating laws. Then, the project develops the optimizing control systems of low-carbon technological investments, and tests the performance of control variables, thus choosing the policy instrument with the best performance accordingly. Finally, the project assesses the implications of technology transfer on China, with trade-off between the underlining benefits and costs. This study is of significant theoretical contributions, because it aims to reveal the underlining operating laws of the control systems of China’s low-carbon technological investments; it is of considerable contributions to the policy-makers, because it offers a striking policy option, capable of providing quantitative assessment with control variables through the control systems.

《京都议定书》将于2020年到期，全球气候谈判进入关键期，相关议题的前瞻性研究刻不容缓。值得关注的是，低碳技术跨国转移出现了契机。然而现有研究尚未回答如下问题：中国如何借助低碳技术跨国转移，增强低碳技术投资效果。针对该问题，本项目从系统科学的全新视角，紧紧围绕“中国低碳技术投资的优化控制”这一主题展开研究。首先基于CGE模型剖析低碳技术投资系统的复杂结构，考察其驱动因素，研究其运行机制，揭示其运行规律；其次，构建低碳技术投资的优化控制系统，评估控制变量的政策绩效，探求增强效果的有效途径；最后，应用该优化控制系统，评估低碳技术跨国转移对中国的影响，探讨中国如何在引进低碳技术和承担碳减排义务之间权衡。本项目拟揭示低碳技术投资优化控制系统的运行规律，有助于深化低碳经济理论和宏观经济管理理论，具有重要的理论价值；同时提供具有可控性、可量化、可操作性的碳减排工具，具有极强的现实意义和政策启示意义。

本项目基本上按照原先拟定的研究计划执行，主要通过构建可计算一般均衡模型对低碳技术投资及其相关低碳政策的绩效及其影响因素，进行了较为系统的研究。主要研究内容如下：第一，课题负责人收集并整理相关文献，整理并调平模型所用数据，对模型所需参数进行估计，在此基础上完成了多国可计算一般均衡模型构建和编程工作；第二，构建了一系列CGE理论模型，考察低碳技术投资运行规律及其影响因素，分析了低碳技术投资的控制系统及其驱动因素；最后，构建了多国CGE模型，评估了不同低碳政策的绩效及其影响因素，提出对低碳政策进行优化设计的政策建议。最后，项目同时关注二氧化碳排放效率、能源利用效率与技术进步之间的关系，考察了不同省份之间的技术差异和节能减排潜力；分析了二氧化碳排放的驱动因素，及其在不同省份的相对影响，评估了各个省份可持续发展情况及其差异。通过上述研究，得出下列有意义的研究结论和政策建议：诸多跨国外部性问题侵蚀低碳技术投资政策绩效，增加二氧化碳减排成本，导致国际利益再分配，并且它们之间相互影响、相互交织，难以被治愈；中国政府应该主要从成本有效和减排效果两个角度，提高低碳技术投资绩效，考察不同政策及政策组合的绩效，权衡不同政策目标，构建高效的二氧化碳减排策略组合；提出促进低碳技术进步是实现经济社会可持续发展的重要途径。