考虑缺货竞争和价格风险的供应链需求模型及实证研究

Globalization and flat enterprise make the supply chain more complex nowadays. The supply uncertainty in one area can affect the global supply chains which involve enterprises in China. In this proposal, we take a different perspective by the analysis of stock competition and price fluctuation induced by supply uncertainty in multi-echelon supply chains. When the supplier has the shortage, 1） we are going to study the demand fluctuation caused by the compeition among multiple downstream enterprises under capacity information asymmetry； 2） due to the mismatch between the supply and the demand, the manufacturer may change the price of its goods. Its clients will adjust their order quantitity based on the forecasted price. We will study how the optimized price affects the manufacturer's demand； 3）we also utilize the emperical analysis to verify the impact of supply uncertainty on the demand fluctuation under practice in China. Currently, the researchers usually design the supply chain based on the assumption of independent supply uncertaint and demand uncertainty. Our study is going to reveal the reasons of enhanced demand uncertainty triggered by supply uncertainty. As a result, our research can be used to improve decision models for the supply chain management. This proposal will provide a more comprehensive way to design effective strategies to hedge against supply uncertainty and its enhanced demand fluctuation. As the one of most important roles in global manufacturing, Chinese companies can use our research to improve its decision making for supply chain management.

全球一体化和企业扁平化的进程使得供应链网络更趋复杂，局部地区供应能力的波动会影响到包括中国在内的整个全球供应链。本课题将分析供应短缺在多级供应链所造成的缺货竞争以及价格变动风险。当供应商出现供应短缺的情况下，1）我们研究其多个下游企业在产能信息不对称中的博弈行为所导致订货量的波动；2）由于供应和需求不匹配，供应商会调整价格，而下游厂商会根据其对价格未来趋势的预测来调整订货量，我们将分析供应商优化后的价格所造成的需求波动；3）我们将利用实证研究来分析中国实践中供应短缺对供应链需求的影响。目前，供应链管理领域往往将供应和需求不确定做为独立事件来制定应对策略。本课题将挖掘供应不确定性加剧供应链中需求波动的原因，以此完善供应链决策建模。我们的理论模型将为企业提供针对供应不稳定以及由其带来需求波动的综合策略。做为世界制造业中的重要一环，我们的实证研究可以为中国企业提高供应链决策提供一些经验和启示。

本课题针对供应和需求不确定性所造成供需不匹配对系统影响进行深入的探讨。研究涵盖了以下几个方面：1）针对特定企业或者新型商业模式所面临的数据有限情况，本课题通过鲁棒优化的方法来为决策者提供抗御风险能力强的解决方案。2）针对不同行业需求和供应不匹配的情况，本课题给出个性化的解决方案。例如，通过电动车设施选址问题的求解来提供电动车换电池运营模式供需不匹配的解决方案；通过提高预约服务的有效性来帮助企业进行更好的资源配置；通过柔性生产来改善供应链系统的服务水平。3）研究应对不同系统中价格波动所造成的影响。例如，通过销售方式的改变来减轻顾客对价格波动所产生的非理性行为；通过调整任务的次序来平衡串联系统中不同任务价值差异对系统的影响；对多产品的价格和质量进行调整来应对多产品之间供需不平衡。本课题所体现出来的主要研究成果是在国际期刊上发表了6篇论文，其中有两篇是发表在Management Science期刊，两篇发表在Manufacturing & Service Operations Management，一篇发表在Naval Research Logistics，一篇发表在Operations Research Letters。凭借课题资助的研究，申请人获得了于2014年获得INFORMS能源、自然资源以及环境领域的青年学者奖的第一名。本课题中所研究的各种方法能够改善供需不确定所带来的消极后果，由此提高客户满意度，为企业获取更多需求提供良好的基础。