产能波动与库存调整的经济效应：一般均衡分析与非线性传导

The production capacity reduction and inventory digestion have been the important means of resolving the excess production capacity in China in the new round of production capacity cycles, the mutually reinforcing of production capacity volatility and inventory adjustments seriously affects the stability of macroeconomic growth. Given the production capacity cycles and inventory cycles corresponding to the economy’s long-cycle and short-cycle operation respectively, this subject will make the effects of long-term production capacity volatility and short-term inventory adjustments on the fluctuations in the economic cycles as the core to study. Based on the status quo of excess production capacity in China, firstly, this project will explore the effects of enterprise cognitive biases and countercyclical economic stimulus policy on the excess production capacity and transmission paths from the perspectives of lack of information and macro-policy. Secondly, this subject will examine the effects of excess production capacity on the output fluctuations and inventory fluctuations under the external shocks with the general equilibrium models. On this basis, we will study the nonlinear transmission process from inventory adjustments to economic cycles from different perspectives and the effects of the factors of expectation and confidence to enterprise inventory adjustments based on the nonlinear models. Then, the subject will build the general equilibrium model to simulate the short-term economic risks and long-term economic sound effects of the new round of production capacity reduction in China, which will carry out policy evaluation on the production capacity reduction. Finally, we will give the recommendations of production capacity reduction and risk resolving and responding to the inventory adjustments.

新一轮的产能周期中，去产能和去库存成为化解我国产能过剩的重要手段，产能波动与库存调整相互叠加，严重影响我国宏观经济的稳定增长。鉴于产能周期和库存周期分别对应经济的中长周期和短周期运行，本课题以中长期产能波动和短期库存调整对经济周期波动的影响为核心展开研究。基于中国产能过剩现状，首先从信息缺失和宏观政策角度探讨企业认知偏差和逆周期的经济刺激政策对我国产能过剩的传导路径和影响程度；其次，利用一般均衡模型考察外部冲击作用下产能过剩对产出波动和库存波动的影响；在此基础上，基于非线性模型从不同的角度来考察库存调整对经济周期的非线性传导过程以及预期和信心因素对企业库存调整的影响；然后，构建一般均衡模型来拟合我国新一轮去产能的短期经济风险和长期经济效果，对去产能进行政策评价。最后，给出去产能的路径选择和风险化解对策以及应对库存波动的政策建议。

我国产能严重过剩背景下，去产能已经成为从供给端化解过剩产能的主要抓手。产能波动是引发中长期经济波动的重要源头，密切关注产能周期的波动特征和产能波动的经济效应尤为重要。产能过剩背景下的库存波动对应经济短周期运行，如何识别出库存周期波动特征并考察库存调整对经济波动的影响也不容忽视。鉴于此，本项目在对产能过剩形成机理深入剖析的基础上，重点考察了外部需求冲击作用下产能过剩对我国制造业价格和产出的影响以及在经济周期不同阶段投资者信心对库存调整的非对称传导效应，并就当前去产能政策对宏观经济所造成的长短期效应进行评价。.（1）从信息不完备影响企业投资决策的角度来阐述产能过剩形成机理，指出经济政策、生产成本和宏观经济不确定性将会影响企业投资决策进而对产能波动造成影响。另外，本课题还研究了要素价格扭曲、环保制度不完善及税制结构不合理等对工业产能过剩的影响及其传导路径，全面分析我国产能过剩形成的复杂成因。.（2）考察了投资潮涌现象、产能过剩与通胀通缩转换之间的关系，深入阐述了我国产能过剩与通货膨胀并存的特殊现象以及长期产能过剩条件下通胀向通缩转换的可能性。.（3）探讨了产能约束作用下国内需求波动对我国工业制成品出口的非线性影响，发现产能过剩条件下和产能不过剩条件下国内需求波动对工业制成品出口的冲击是不对称的，应密切关注我国制造业产出在国内需求和国外需求之间的配置情况。.（4）将投资者信心引入到库存调整模型当中，考察经济周期不同阶段投资者信心对库存调整的非对称影响，发现在经济下滑期，投资者信心下降对库存投资的削弱作用要高于在经济上升期投资者信心提升对库存投资的促进作用。.（5）分析了去产能的长短期经济效果，讨论了我国去产能长期“淘而不汰”现象的成因和困境。在长期，去产能将会提高产能过剩行业和非产能过剩行业的产出和市场需求，使得投资效率大幅提高。但短期去产能现状难以改变，债务问题和职工安置问题等亟待解决。