基于提高顾客粘性的仓店一体化生鲜品零售供应链优化策略研究

With the accelerated pace of urban life and rising wages, people's time costs are rising rapidly. The new retail of warehouse stores that can save people's time has come into being. After placing an order on the mobile phone, you can receive the purchased item within half an hour. Through the use of advanced technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence, the new retail upgrades the transportation, distribution and sales process of fresh products, and reconstructs the retail supply chain of fresh products. However, while enjoying Internet technology, fresh retailing also faces the problem of fragmentation of the scene brought by the Internet and low customer stickiness. Previous studies have not adequately analyzed the decision-making of retail supply chain management for fresh products, especially the research on online and offline collaborative decision-making for warehouse store and how to improve customer stickiness. The project aims to build a fresh food retail supply chain model with stochastic demand for fresh products to improve the customer stickiness. Through the joint replenishment of fresh products, online and offline collaborative pricing, selection of products, online traffic import and decision-making optimization of shelf allocation, the efficiency of the fresh food retail supply chain will be improved, and the profit of fresh retailers will be improved. Through the research of this project, it is expected to improve the quality monitoring and demand forecasting methods and retail supply chain management theory for the warehouse store.

随着都市生活节奏的加快以及工资的上涨，人们的时间成本正在快速上升。能够为人们节约时间的仓店一体化生鲜新零售应运而生，手机下单半小时内就能够收到所购商品。通过运用大数据、人工智能等先进技术，新模式对生鲜品的运输、流通及销售过程进行升级，对生鲜品的零售供应链进行重构。但生鲜新零售在享受互联网科技的同时，也面临互联网带来的场景碎片化，顾客粘性低等难题。已有研究对生鲜品的零售供应链管理决策分析还不充分，尤其是针对仓店一体化的线上线下协同决策以及如何提高顾客粘性的研究还不够深入。本项目针对生鲜品需求波动大以及顾客粘性低等问题，构建具有随机需求的生鲜品零售供应链模型，通过对生鲜品的联合补货、线上线下协同定价、上架品种选择、线上流量导入以及货架分配的决策优化，提升生鲜品零售供应链效率，提高生鲜零售商利润。通过本项目的研究，以期完善仓店一体化模式下的生鲜品质量监控与需求预测方法以及零售供应链管理理论。

我国生鲜品年产量居世界前列，如蔬菜生产量约占世界总产量的60%。但我国在生鲜在流通领域损耗仍然较大。据统计，果蔬、水产品及肉类在流通环节耗存比率分别为20%-30%、15%、12%。疫情期间，运输的延迟、中断、生鲜品价格高涨等问题都对生鲜品供应链的管理提出了更高要求。项目围绕生鲜品供应链管理策略及影响生鲜品消费的影响因素进行了深入研究。首先，完成了对单一生鲜品的需求模型构建，以及生鲜品零售供应链利润的数学模型。由于全球疫情带来的生鲜品高通胀，本项目尝试在通货膨胀条件下，采用DCF(Discounted-Cash-Flow)模型将供应链利润贴现到期初的方式来核算通胀条件下的利润，和传统利润模型对比，得到了通胀条件下更加合理的生鲜品供应链管理策略。然后，将第一生鲜品供应链拓展到多品种供应链，在多种生鲜品共享货架空间的情况下，研究了多种生鲜品的联合补货策略以及补货与定价、货架分配的联动机制，找到了多品种生鲜品联动的供应链管理优化策略。此外，在对生鲜品供应链上下游的调研中发现，国内的O2O、即时生鲜、社区团购等生鲜品供应链组织模式、生鲜新零售和市场应用规模远好于国外发达国家，通过和国外发达国家的对比发现，主要是由于国内的4G/5G网络、移动支付、供应链的整合、大数据分析能力等基础设施远优于大多数发达国家。因此，本项目又延伸研究了大数据分析能力对企业绩效的影响、供应链协同利益的分配策略、移动支付体验风险感知对跨境移动支付意愿的影响等。在调研中发现了苏南农产品供应链数字化管理依然不足，在苏州市政协会议期间提交了题为《关于推进我市农业供应链数字化转型的建议》的提案，并获得了政协苏州市优秀提案。