中国地方政府融资平台债务重构及其风险缓释

A large stand of current literatures study the system, institutional and cultural origins of the emergence and development of local government financing vehicles form the angles of fiscal management and public management et al., and put forward some coping strategies to solve or mitigate the stock of debt risk within the aforementioned framework. However, system and institution are destined to be difficult to be changed fundamentally due to path-dependence inertia and trait, In addition, the debt issue is already a fait accompli and continuing expansion. It's urgent to study the feasible debt restructuring and risk mitigation means. With regards to this, the project will combine the relevant characteristics of local government financing vehicles to study their financing modes and evolutions, prudently evaluate their potential risks and transmission mechanisms, deeply explore debt restructuring and risk mitigation means, as well as macro policy considerations and reactions to the debt issues of financing vehicles. The project plans to study the realistic foundation and theoretical logic of debt terms restructuring such as conditional extension et al., and put emphasis on the managerial incentives and mechanism designs of the participants of debt restructuring. With reference to the experience of debt restructuring of stated-owned enterprises and sovereign, we will strive to put forward some constructive ideas and suggestions for the debts' rectification, restructuring and risk mitigation.

当前文献从财政管理、公共管理等视角讨论了我国地方政府融资平台产生和发展的制度、体制和文化根源，并在此框架内提出化解平台存量债务风险的对策。然而，制度和体制均有其路径依赖的惯性特点，况且融资平台债务问题已经既成事实且正持续膨胀，亟须研究可行的债务重构和风险缓释手段。课题将结合我国融资平台的有关特点，研究融资平台的融资模式及其演变规律，审慎评估融资平台的潜在风险及其传导或扩散机制，探索融资平台债务的重构及其风险缓释之策，以及宏观考量融资平台债务的政策应对及其制度设计。课题还将重点研究融资平台债务期限重构的现实基础和理论逻辑，着重分析债务重构参与各方的管理激励及其机制应对，深入探索宏微观统筹的债务风险缓释和整体处置方案等，争取为融资平台存量债务的整改、重组和风险化解提供建设性的思路。

基于课题申请书的研究计划和实施方案，课题组成员之间分工协作，积极参加学术会议，组织企业调研，撰写和发表论文等，取得了预期的效果。截止目前，课题组已发表CSSCI核心期刊论文12篇，其中《经济研究》1篇，《金融研究》2篇，《统计研究》2篇。另外，与课题相关的2篇论文正在投稿中。在课题组已发表的论文中，《地方政府债务重构及其风险缓释》和《地方政府融资平台存量债务整改及其有条件重构》被《新华文摘》、人大书报资料中心复印报刊资料等全文转载。课题研究或解决的主要问题及其贡献包括：第一，融资平台的融资模式、结构演变特征及其多重博弈视角的经济解释，融资平台债务融资的期限错配状况及其生成机制。第二，融资平台债务的潜在风险及其传导或扩散机制，包括地方政府或有债务的不确定触发机制及其显性债务和或有债务的结构性风险，地方政府对融资平台的隐性担保等兜底预期对债务估值体系的复杂影响。第三，融资平台债务展期重构的模式选择及其福利影响，融资平台债务有条件整改的内在逻辑及其优选模式，以及期限错配下的融资平台债务展期及其管理激励。第四，融资平台债务对货币政策执行效果的影响等。