黏虫灾变因素分析与早期监测预警技术研究

Mythimna separata is a migratory pest of rice, wheat and corn. With the global climate change and tillage practice changes, M. separate have new characteristics at the occurrence regularity and mechanism of occurrence in recent years. Lacking of real-time monitoring and early warning technology resulted in the frequent outbreaks and damage, which has brought great threats to the production of food safety in China.The project intends to use the population dynamics datas obtained from seasonal monitoring of entomology radar and searchlingt traps from Yanqing in Beijing city, Xilinhaote in Inner Mongolia autonomous region, Xingan in Guangxi autonomous region and other places which have carried out the relevant experiment, and field pest information provinced by the department of plant protection surrounding with the radar station, and combined with real-time monitoring data from entomology radar and searchlight traps during the term of the project. Comprehensive utilization of "3S" technology, entomological radar technology, weather forecast model of WRF and other research methods in order to find out the key factors of M. separate outbreak from the aspects of insect source information, migration parameter, weather conditions, the host condition and so on. Based on the above research to explore the early warning model of M. separate, and validated and optimized according to the field investigation data.The establishment of monitoring and early warning platform integrated analysis of remote sensing, radar monitoring, WRF forecast data based on GIS grid platform as the foundation in order to implement of the early warning of M. separate in the future.

黏虫是危害水稻、小麦、玉米的一种迁飞性害虫，随着全球气候变化和耕作制度变迁，其发生危害规律、灾变机理呈现新的变化，实时监测和早期预警技术的缺失导致黏虫的频繁暴发危害，对我国粮食安全生产带来很大威胁。本项目拟利用在北京延庆、内蒙古锡林浩特、广西兴安等多年的季节性野外监测获得的黏虫种群动态数据和周边省份植保部门提供的虫情信息，并结合昆虫雷达系统和探照灯诱虫器的实时监测数据，综合利用“3S”技术、昆虫雷达监测技术、中尺度天气预报WRF模型等研究手段，从虫源信息、空中运转、气象条件、寄主条件等方面，找出黏虫暴发危害的关键因子；在此基础上，探索研究黏虫早期预警模型，并根据田间调查数据进行验证与优化；建立以GIS网格分析平台为基础，集成遥感分析、雷达监测、WRF预测为一体的黏虫早期监测预警平台，实现黏虫的早期预警。

在国家自然基金的资助下，以危害水稻、小麦、玉米的重要迁飞性害虫黏虫为研究对象，在北京延庆、广西兴安等地设置野外监测点进行季节性迁飞动态监测，同时对多年积累的数据进行了虫源分析，获得黏虫季节性迁飞的种群动态数据和不同地区虫源衔接关系，综合利用“3S”技术、昆虫雷达监测技术、高空探照灯诱集技术、中尺度天气预报WRF模型等研究手段，从虫源信息、空中运转、气象条件、生物型等方面，对黏虫的空中迁飞行为、迁飞与天气背景的关系，不同季节的迁飞路线和预测预报技术等关键问题进行了研究。并对高空探照灯、昆虫雷达等监测工具和中尺度天气预报WRF模型、轨迹分析等软件分析技术进行了升级和自主研发，各项研究工作均按合同书完成。研究明确了黏虫季节性迁飞规律，夜间不同时间的迁飞行为参数与迁飞与天气背景的关系；阐明了黏虫在我国华北和东北地区的虫源衔接关系；明确了黏虫在我局部地区暴发的原因；自主设计了高空探照灯诱捕器和空中集虫网室等监测工具；自主研发了昆虫雷达数据导入、导出和快速分析工具；开发了数字化扫描昆虫雷达控制系统；初步建立了以GIS网格分析平台为基础，集成遥感分析、雷达监测、WRF预测为一体的黏虫早期监测预警平台，为草地贪夜蛾、草地螟等其它迁飞性害虫的监测预警提供了技术参考。.截至2019年12月，标注该基金项目的成果如下：出版专著1部，发表研究论文5篇，其中SCI论文1篇；获得国家发明专利2项；授权软件著作权3项。培养硕士研究生5名，本科实习生16名。