连片特困地区灾贫耦合机制及协同减灾脱贫策略研究

Both poverty elimination and disaster mitigation are big challenges for achieving sustainable development, the prevailing development mode of the country. In China, the natural environment is very fragile in contiguous poor areas; the overall poverty level is significant high in these specific regions. Nature disasters and poverty are impacted each other with very significant regional characteristics. To conduct the regional differentiation study on disaster-poverty coupling mechanism for different areas is urgently needed. By identifying and analyzing the regional differentiation characters for different types of nature disasters in contiguous poor areas, and analyzing dynamic poverty variation and the main contribution in contiguous poor areas, this study aims to identify the relationship between disaster loss rate and poverty cause factors, to explore the impacts posed by nature disasters to poverty cause factors, then to the post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation, finally to find out the disaster-poverty coupling mechanism in different areas. Furthermore, it will continue to study the mutual effects among disaster losses, poverty alleviation and post-disaster recovery capability, also to study the integrated strategy for disaster reduction and poverty alleviation on the basis of the practice in -typical areas, thus to provide the reliable scientific basis for implementing and promoting the national strategy for disaster prevention, reduction, relief and poverty elimination.

消除贫困和减轻灾害风险均是目前我国实现可持续发展模式中面临的严峻挑战，我国集中连片特困地区自然环境脆弱，区域性整体贫困显著，自然灾害与贫困彼此作用、相互影响，区域特征明显，亟待开展不同片区灾贫耦合机制的区域差异研究。本研究通过识别分析我国集中连片特困地区各自然灾害类型的区域分异特征，辨析不同片区贫困动态变化特征及主导因子，寻找自然灾害与贫困系统的耦合关系，自然灾害对致贫因子、致贫因子对灾后重建能力的影响关系，探讨不同片区灾贫耦合机制，并在此基础上，研究典型片区脱贫与灾害损失及灾后重建能力的相互影响和协同减灾脱贫策略，为国家防灾减灾救灾及扶贫攻坚战略实施提供重要的科学依据。

消除贫困和减轻灾害风险均是目前我国实现可持续发展模式中面临的严峻挑战，我国集中连片特困地区自然环境脆弱，区域性整体贫困显著，自然灾害与贫困彼此作用、相互影响，区域特征明显，亟待开展不同片区灾贫耦合机制的区域差异研究。.项目在构建集中连片特困地区高精度灾情与本底数据集的基础上，开展了片区灾害与贫困特征分区分类研究，识别分析片区各自然灾害类型的区域分异特征，辨析不同片区贫困动态变化特征及主导因子；进一步，选取川滇灾害高风险与低收入叠加的典型代表区四川芦山县和云南宁洱县开展案例和实证研究，基于量化统计分析模型，完成了灾贫耦合关系与减灾策略研究，辨识了影响农户生计策略最大的致贫因子，和影响灾害认知与响应能力的差异化要素，分析给出了协同减灾脱贫策略。同时，立足全面脱贫，在开展农村地区灾害风险的分布现状调研和量化分析的基础上，研究提出了新时期农村防灾减灾的策略。.项目形成了覆盖度全、精细度高的片区成时序灾情与基础数据集；构建了片区分区分类灾贫时空分异特征量化研究方法，给出了片区大尺度脱贫减灾动态分析的量化图表与结论；构建了灾贫耦合互馈机制的量化分析模型，提出了基于生计资本的防灾减贫策略；辨识了灾害认知与响应的驱动因子，提出了面向多类别（收入、教育、民族等）差异化的应对能力提升策略；辨识了新时期全面脱贫后农村灾害风险的特征，提出了综合性加强农村地区防灾减灾能力的应对策略。.项目为灾贫耦合互馈理论和机理研究提供了量化分析依据与案例实证，并为国内开展灾害与贫困研究提供了原始资料和参考依据。项目成果可提升公众对灾害的认知，为防灾减灾决策提供科学依据，为新时期农村减灾提供决策建议。