基于稳健控制理论的沿海城市主动应对气候变化条件下的洪涝灾害风险研究

With the rapid growth in urban population and high density of industries, climate change induced increase in frequency and intensity of rainstorms, the rising sea level, and high tide induced storm surge, are likely to push up the risk of urban flooding and inundation in Shanghai. While exist researches seldom involve comprehensive quantification and comparison of risks under a large set of climate change scenarios and evaluating various plausible mitigation/adaptation options across many contingencies, this study aims to fill this extremely important niche with the guiding of the Robust Decision Making (RDM) perspective and the RDM control theory. In more details, it will 1) validate the applicability of SOBEK to the context of Shanghai based on the historical records of precipitation and high tide for last 60 years; 2) run validated hydrologic and hydraulic models to simulate the impacts of extreme flooding events in the forms of combining heavy rainfall and storm surge under future multi-scenarios of climate change; 3) couple the traditional method of disaster evaluation “Scenario Analysis” and “Probabilistic Risk Analysis” to realize the risk analysis under multi-scenarios and with multi-factors layers; 4) evaluate the performance of various plausible adaptation potions and quantify their cost effectiveness. The outputs would provide new set of integrated scientific knowledge based on multidisciplinary perspectives for extreme flooding events research in China, and offer a more comprehensive and effective decision-supporting tool for decision makers to identify crucial vulnerable areas and quantitative evaluate alternative mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures.

上海是典型河口海岸城市，易受台风、暴雨、高潮和洪水的袭击。气候变化引发的海平面升高加速、短时强降水增多，风暴潮加剧等极端气候事件对上海防汛安全的威胁迫在眉睫，亟待制定长远的应对措施防范极端洪涝风险。本研究以支持稳健决策的控制理论为指导，拟评估未来气候变化条件下上海应对洪涝风险的各种措施的成本-效益权衡与抉择。具体内容为：1）利用上海60年极端降水和潮位的资料，调试SOBEK专业水文水动力模型，实现模型本地化；2）利用本地化模型模拟未来气候变化情景下，极端暴雨和风暴潮叠加的上海淹没情况；3）耦合灾害学传统“情景分析”和“概率风险分析”方法，实现对承灾体多情景、多指标层的系统风险评估；4）定量评估适应措施在不确定情景中的表现情况和成本-效益权衡。本研究将支持稳健决策的控制理论运用于应对气候变化的决策评估，为我国沿海城市制定适应对策提供方法论及技术手段支持。

上海是典型河口海岸城市，气候变化引发的海平面上升加速、短时强降水增多，风暴潮加剧等极端气候事件极大增加了未来洪水风险，制定长远的洪涝应对方案迫在眉睫。本研究以稳健决策理论为指导，通过建立多源灾害影响下的城市水文水动力模型，计算未来极端洪涝灾害风险并定量评估工程性适应措施成本效益，为政府制定高效合理的适应措施战略提供理论支持。项目主要结果如下：（1）利用XLRM矩阵理清政策措施、列举不确定性来源、构建关系模型以及提出评价标准，探讨影响上海市未来极端洪涝事件的不确定性因子及指标变率区间，使用拉丁超立方体抽样方法构建未来极端情景，实现RDM稳健控制理论方法本地化。（2）基于Infoworks ICM软件构建适用于上海地区城市河网的水文水动力模型并实现参数本地化，耦合风暴潮模型，模拟上海在未来极端“多碰头”情景下的淹没情况。（3）基于洪涝淹没深度与不同土地利用类型的相应损失率数据，进行不同土地利用类型的灾损曲线（脆弱性方程）拟合，并基于GIS计算不同极端降雨事件情景及复合情景下的上海市直接经济损失。（4）评估五种洪涝应对措施（Dr, GA, Tun30, Tun50, Tun70）的成本以及七个措施组合方案（Dr, GA, Tun30, Dr+GA, Tun50, Dr+GA+Tun30, Tun70）的风险降低率，结果表明“Tun50”措施具有最高的成本效益比，但在洪涝十分严重的情景下后两种组合措施降低洪涝风险的效果较好。基于对于未来情景的预测，制定上海市当前至2165年的洪涝适应路径图，为上海市未来防洪措施制定提供借鉴依据。本项目共发表论文8篇，SCI收录7篇（JCR1区4篇），中文核心论文1篇。共培养硕士研究生2名。