黄河内蒙段凌汛成因分析及预报模型研究

The genetic analysis for ice flood and it's calamity have been undertaken in terms of objective factors (channel regime, thermal force, motive force) and subjective factors (the consciousness of protecting ice flood, bring ice flood under control) from the procedure of freeze-up and break-up of Yellow River in the Inner Mongolia section. The forecasting models for freeze-up time and break-up time of Yellow River in the Inner Mongolia section were developed with fuzzy set theory, Back Propagation neural networte model with fuzzy identification approach and stochastic hydrology theory. The strategies in engineering and non- engineering also presented in the jobs for bring ice flood and it's calamity under control in future.

应用非恒定河道水力学、热力学与淌凌关系理论、冰塞冰坝成因理论等分析内蒙段五鏊恼境す圩柿希沂颈切纬苫怼＝抖嗍倍畏嚎肆⒏窨占涔乐的Ｐ汀贰PMA模型、啾淞孔曰毓槟Ｐ汀⒑颖Ｐ偷认嗷デ短住⒔⒈浅梢蚰Ｄ狻⒎夂印⒖釉けＰ汀８骼嘣けＰ湍Ｄ夥抡婕煅椤Ｓ醚橹ず蟮哪Ｐ椭傅挤懒瑁锏匠沟卓刂苹坪幽诿啥瘟柩兜哪康摹?..