中国地区PM2.5长期暴露的健康效应及风险区划研究

Air pollution with mainly fine particles is becoming more and more serious in China. Health effect from PM2.5 exposure causes widespread concern and attaches great importance to the public. Accurately assessing the health effect of PM2.5 and obtaining its associated risk zonation in China are urgent and have essential social impacts. After gathering and reorganizing atmospheric environmental data in China such as the PM2.5 concentration, health data in China such the mortalities for 27 kinds of common diseases which cover the top ten cancers, and geographic data in China such as the population distribution and the land use, this project will firstly analyze the human exposure level in different regions of China by using GIS technique; and then with the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and Cox’s proportional hazards regression model, systematically assess the characteristics and spatial disparities of the correlation between the exposure level of PM2.5 and the common diseases mortalities, and obtain the risk zonation and the relative risk of the increased common diseases mortalities caused by different PM2.5 exposure levels; at last, statistically analyze the features and mechanisms of the health risk differentiation caused by various compositions of PM2.5 in different risk zones. We expect that, through the research of the project, we will further understand the health hazards of people in China from PM2.5 exposure, and provide scientific evidences and references to government departments for formulating the appropriate environmental protection policy and carrying out the associate disease prevention and control measures.

当前我国以颗粒物为主的空气污染日趋严重，PM2.5的健康危害已引起公众的高度关注，准确评估中国各地区PM2.5的健康效应及其风险区划迫在眉睫。在收集和整编了近十五年来中国各地的PM2.5浓度等大气环境数据、包含前十位恶性肿瘤在内的27种常见疾病死亡率等卫生数据以及人口分布和土地利用等地理数据的基础上，本项目将首先基于GIS技术分析中国各地PM2.5人群暴露水平，随后综合应用地理加权回归（GWR）模型和Cox比例风险回归模型，系统地评估中国各地区PM2.5人群暴露水平与常见疾病死亡率之间的关联特征及区域差异，并给出不同的PM2.5年平均暴露水平导致常见疾病死亡率升高的相对风险及区划结果；最后统计研究不同风险区划的PM2.5理化组成导致健康风险差异化的特征及成因。我们希望通过本项目的研究，进一步认清PM2.5对中国地区人民健康的危害，为政府部门制定相应的环保及疾控政策提供科学参考依据。

由于中国地区污染源时空的差异，产生的PM2.5浓度及理化组成的具有显著区域差异，此外，PM2.5对各个脏器具体有什么样的损伤、有多大损伤取决于人群在PM2.5中暴露的时间、PM2.5浓度、成分及其所携带的有害物质，为了详尽的描述中国地区PM2.5的健康风险，我们展开了以下三方面的研究：1）PM2.5年平均暴露水平与常见疾病死亡率之间的关联及区划特征研究，2）PM2.5年平均暴露水平导致常见疾病死亡率升高的相对风险及区划特征研究，3）不同区划的PM2.5理化组成导致的健康效应差异化特征研究。研究结果显示，中国地区PM2.5对于人体呼吸系统、循环系统以及生殖系统有显著的危害，PM2.5对这些器官造成的健康风险具有显著的地理差异，城乡差异尤其明显，城市中心人口密集地区面临的PM2.5的健康风险显著大于乡村，此外，PM2.5的健康风险具有显著的性别差异，女性面临的PM2.5的健康风险大于男性。以上研究结果有助于识别PM2.5的高危疾病、高危人群以及高危地理，对于PM2.5健康风险的预警工作，以及相关的防治政策的制定有较大参考意义。