青藏高原三江源地区气候场与径流场重建研究

In this project, by using the tree-ring width data with wide range, high density, high resolution, and other tree-ring parameters--density，it will construct an original alternative database of Three-river Source Region. Based on the analysis of the relationship between tree-ring, climate and runoff, combined with the historical climate and surface runoff of Three-river Source Region, it will reconstruct the climate element sequence for about 300-500 years of Three-river Source Region, and the runoff historical change sequence of the main streams of Yangtze River, Yellow River, Lancang River and major tributaries monitored by hydrologic station. With the construction of historical climate elements and flow field of Three-river Source Region, it will analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation. This project can play an important role in some fields, such as ecological environment protection of Three-river Source Region, water resources management of major rivers, economic and social development in downstream region and the water problem solution of hundreds of millions of people. Furthermore, it can provide a scientific basis to address climate change and formulate long-term program for water resources utilization for the government.

本项目拟利用大范围、高密度、高分辨率的树轮宽度资料，辅以密度等其他树轮参数，构建三江源地区原始代用资料库。在对树轮-气候-径流相互关系分析研究的基础上，针对三江源地区历史气候和地表径流状况，重建三江源地区300-500年的气候要素序列，以及长江、黄河、澜沧江干流和有水文站控制的主要支流径流量历史变化序列，并构建三江源地区历史气候要素场和径流量场，分析其时空变化特征。本项目的研究，对保护三江源地区生态环境、主要河流水资源管理、下游地区的经济社会发展以及数亿人民的用水问题等都具有重要意义，同时还可以为政府部门制定水资源长期利用规划、应对气候变化措施等提供科学依据。

本项目拟利用大范围、高密度、高分辨率的树轮宽度资料，辅以灰度、密度等其他树轮参数，构建三江源地区原始代用资料库。在对树轮-气候-径流相互关系分析研究的基础上，针对三江源地区历史气候和地表径流状况，重建三江源地区300-500年的气候要素序列，以及长江、黄河、澜沧江干流和有水文站控制的主要支流径流量历史变化序列，并构建三江源地区历史气候要素场和径流量场，分析其时空变化特征，做出未来10-30年的径流量、气候变化趋势预估。本项目的研究，对保护三江源地区生态环境、主要河流水资源管理、下游地区的经济社会发展以及数亿人民的用水问题等都具有重要意义，同时还可以为政府部门制定水资源长期利用规划、应对气候变化措施等提供科学依据。