促销决策前瞻性情绪的构成及作用机制：基于电商限时限量型聚集促销的实证研究

According to the goal-directed characteristics of decision-making of sales promotion, this project selects time-quantity-limited agglomeration promotion which is posed by e-business platforms as the research object for its unique restricted conditions with lots of benefits offered by millions of firms to induce forward-looking emotions, so as to make use of tracking survey combined with panel data mining as well as psychological experiments, to explore specific ingredients and occurrence mechanism of forward-looking emotions, to testify interaction of ‘hope and fear’ with ‘anticipated rejoice and anticipated regret’ and to reveal self-reinforcing mechanism of emotions based on the theory of time pressure and affective heuristic. Then, time distance, an extremely important concept in construal-level theory, is used to study regular patterns of anticipatory emotions and anticipated emotions evolving by the decision time in order to explain the reason why the time is closer to implementation date of the agglomeration promotion and the negative emotions will be more prevailing, especially fear and anticipated regret. Meanwhile, marketing hype of e-business platforms is viewed as important advertising information to influence anticipatory emotions and anticipated emotions of consumers. On one side, the information of marketing hype which emphasizes lots of benefits of agglomeration promotion will evoke anticipated emotions with their motivation functions. On the other side, if the information of marketing hype emphasizes time-limited and quantity-limited of agglomeration promotion, it will evoke anticipatory emotions with their information functions. In addition, emotion contagion is employed to unfold the spreading mechanisms of anticipatory and anticipated emotions in interpersonal communication. Thereby, it is found that anticipatory emotions and anticipated emotions are not only mutually independent but mutually influential, not only evolve with the time but also are easily awakened by the outer information especially those information is well designed. Anticipatory emotions and anticipated emotions have unique functional mechanisms which can reflect how forward-looking emotions influence decisions and behaviors of individuals and groups now and in the future. Above all, this project not only has positive significance to enrich the theory of goal-directed decisions and expected utility theory, but also has important enlightenments to improving the effectiveness of online promotions as well as understanding consumers' psychology and behavior in the online background.

本项目根据促销决策的目标导向型特征，选择电商限时限量型聚集促销作为诱发前瞻性情绪的对象，采用跟踪调查辅以面板数据挖掘与心理学实验的方法，结合时间压力与情感启发式探索前瞻性情绪的构成及发生机制，验证“害怕和希望”与“预期欣喜和预期后悔”的交互作用，揭示情绪的自强化机制；结合时间距离研究预支和预期情绪随时间而演化的规律，揭示越临近实施时点则负性情绪越占上风的原因；结合电商炒作方式探索强调聚集促销好处的信息对预期情绪动机功能的强化，以及强调限时、限量信息对预支情绪信息功能的强化，并利用情绪感染揭示预期与预支情绪的人际传播机制，最终藉此揭示预支和预期情绪既相互独立又相互影响，既随时间演化又易受外部信息唤醒，且能在人群中扩散传播，并由此深刻影响个体与群体当下决策及未来行为的作用机制。综合来看，本项目既对丰富目标导向型决策理论有积极意义，也对提升在线促销效果，理解在线背景下的消费心理与行为有重要启示。

本研究采用追踪调查及心理学实验，探索电商限时限量型聚集促销诱发的前瞻性情绪机制。第一，验证了时间限制、聚集规模与限量销售对前瞻性情绪的影响差异。①大规模聚集促销诱发的四类前瞻性情绪更强烈。②限时在聚集促销规模影响希望和焦虑中起到了调节作用，对预期欣喜和预期后悔的调节不显著。③限量在聚集促销规模影响希望、焦虑和预期后悔中起到调节作用。第二，验证了时间压力与限量在情绪诱发前瞻性情绪上的分工。①不同限量促销方式对前瞻性情绪的影响有显著差异，生产型限量诱发的前瞻性情绪强度更大。②在前瞻性情绪发生过程中，以时间限制为代表的客观时间压力和以折扣力度为代表的主观时间压力有着不同的调节作用。其中，客观时间压力只对预支情绪起调节作用，而主观时间压力只对预期情绪起调节作用。③在限量促销决策中，存在正性情绪强度大于负性情绪的现象，说明限量促销能诱发享乐动机。第三，结合时间距离研究了预支和预期情绪随时间而演化的规律。①无论远离或临近正式期，预期情绪强度都会保持较高水平；但在临近正式期，预期与预支情绪强度差距会显著缩小。②在网络大促运作过程中，希望和焦虑会逐渐增强，预期欣喜会逐渐减弱，而预期后悔则无明显变化；③无论远离或临近正式期，同一类型前瞻性情绪中的正性情绪强度都会大于负性情绪，说明快乐是网络大促的主旋律。④在整个大促期间，预支情绪对购买意向都有更大的影响，说明席勒式狂欢的核心推动力量是即时情绪。⑤无论在远离或临近正式期，总有正性前瞻性情绪对购买意向的影响大于同类负性情绪的现象。第四，结合情绪感染揭示预期情绪的人际传播机制。①电商聚集促销诱发的预期情绪经过情绪感染后会更强烈。其中，有情绪感染的过程会引发更高强度的预期欣喜与预期后悔。②预期情绪感染机制会受到情绪易感性的影响。情绪易感性高的人会产生更强烈的预期情绪。③预期情绪感染机制会受到关系亲密度的影响。强的关系亲密度会让人产生更强烈的预期情绪。