基于多层耦合种群网络的病毒传播规律与控制策略研究

The traffic congestion and population globalization have become the main route of disease spreading. Based on the real traffic flow and human behavior, the strategy of reassigning packages with artificial intelligence could reduce congestion and narrow the scope of disease transmission, and it will become the key development direction in the future. However, the complexity of traffic flow and human activities has made the study of disease transmission a challenge. For this purpose, this project takes into consideration the impact of real traffic flow and human behavior. The main research contents include: 1) Combining probability map theory and Markov chain, establishing coupled metapopulation network from traffic and passenger network based on granular computing theory and extracting diffusion regular; 2) Based on the coupled metapopulation network, study the disease propagation model and analyse it by message passing theory; 3) The swarm intelligence is introduced to divert the flow of traffic and passengers. The strategy is optimized and verified from two aspects: traffic congestion and disease spreading. The significance of the research lies in: 1) Theoretically, accurately depicting the law of disease transmission and exploring the mechanism of traffic behavior; 2) Applying the important factors of disease contact transmission, providing decision-making reference for relieving traffic congestion and reducing disease spreading.

严重的交通拥堵及快速的人口全球化，已成为疾病传播的主要途径。其中基于真实交通流和客流量扩散规律，采用人工智能干预客流量分配策略缩小拥堵和疾病传播范围，成为未来缓解交通压力与疾病防控的重点发展方向。然而交通流和人类活动各自的复杂性，使得研究疾病传播成为一项挑战。为此本课题综合考虑真实的交通行为的影响，最大限度模拟真实的交通流量扩散过程。主要研究内容包括：1）基于粒计算理论对国内城市地理位置进行粒度划分，结合概率图理论和马尔可夫链，对车流量和客流量建立耦合种群网络，提取扩散规律；2）以构建的耦合种群系统为基础，研究疾病传播模型，采用消息传递理论展开解析；3）引入群体智能，疏导客流扩散，从交通拥堵和疾病传播两个方面对该策略进行优化和验证。研究的意义在于：1）理论上，准确刻画疾病传播规律，探讨交通行为的作用机制；2）应用上，挖掘疾病接触传播的重要因素，为缓解交通压力和减少疾病接触传播提供决策参考。

近三年的新冠病毒疾病传播对国内外的经济和生活产生了很大的影响，随着人类对该病毒的认识的不断提高，采取的应对策略也在不断的变化。三年来不论疫情发展的任何，控制病毒传播最基本的措施就是限制交通和人员流动，因为交通作为疾病传播最主要的媒介，对疾病传播影响巨大。本项目负责人三年来主要研究人类交通的活动对病毒传播的影响，已发表论文3篇，二审中论文1篇，专利3项。研究发现病毒传播范围会随着交通流的增加出现一个高峰,然后出现拐点,并且随着不同的疫情防御措施的变化，拐点位置会出现相应差异。