社会心理建设视角下政策干预对城市居民碳能力成熟度影响的实验研究

China promises to reduce its carbon emission per unit of GDP in 2030 by 60% to 65% in relation to that of 2005, as a result of which, our country not only needs to promote the energy revolution on the production side, but also tap the potential of emission reduction in terms of consumption. The promotion of urban residents' carbon capability maturity, which is the starting point of consumption-side emission reduction, through intervention policies has become an important issue to be studied urgently. The project intends to develop a measurement system and a measurement procedure of the carbon capability maturity. A questionnaire targeting urban residents of large cities in China is conducted to investigate the status quo and the differences of the carbon capability maturity. From the perspective of social psychological construction, this paper constructs an exploratory theoretical model of the mechanism of external intervention policy on the carbon capability maturity through qualitative research. A large sample of subjects were recruited to conduct the policy experiments to obtain quantitative data so that the influencing effects of single policy intervention and interactive intervention of combined policies can be tested. Subsequently, the comparison of the effect differences by prior intervention and expost intervention implemented reveals the optimal policy or the best combined policies. In the meanwhile, the role of situational variables in the regulation of intervention effects is investigated. On the basis of the above research, suggestions to promote the carbon capability maturity of urban residents in our country are put forward. This project can provide theoretical support and experimental evidence for the design of emission reduction policies on the consumption side extending from the macro level to the micro level focusing on special groups.

我国政府承诺将在2030年单位GDP碳排放比2005年下降60%~65%。为此，我国不仅要在生产侧推动能源革命，更要在消费侧挖掘减排潜力。居民碳能力作为消费侧减排的关键发力点，通过政策干预来推动其成熟度提升成为亟待研究的重要课题。本项目拟开发碳能力成熟度测度体系和测度程序，并以我国大型城市的城市居民为研究对象进行基线调研，测度碳能力成熟度现状及差异特征。以社会心理建设为切入点，通过质性研究建构政策干预对碳能力成熟度作用机理的探索性理论模型。招募大样本被试者进行干预实验获得量化数据，分别检验单一政策干预和组合政策交互干预的影响效应，并比较事前干预和事后干预的效应差异，同时考察情境变量对干预效果的调节作用，揭示何种政策或政策组合具有最佳干预效果，据此提出促进我国城市居民碳能力成熟度提升的政策建议。本项目可以为消费测减排政策设计从宏观层面延伸到聚焦于特殊群体的微观层面提供理论支撑和实验证据。

合理引导居民提升碳能力成熟度是从消费侧促进碳减排的重要举措。本项目开发了碳能力成熟度测度体系和测度程序，可以细化碳能力的理论研究，为碳能力现状评估提供全新的模型、路径和方法。本项目累计回收了3437份调研问卷，分析了碳能力及相关心理行为变量，进一步探究了城市碳能力成熟度的现状，并基于社会学统计特征分析了群体差异性。研究发现，城市居民碳辨识能力和碳影响能力是阻碍能力提升的主要能力环节，劣性值检出率接近50%。城市居民碳能力成熟度从初始级到优化级呈现明显的“金字塔型”分布特征，高达71.7%的居民属于初始级，而处于规范级、集成级和优化级的居民占比均远低于10%。.本项目进一步探讨了社会心理建设视角下信息干预对城市居民碳能力成熟度的作用机理，并探究了碳能力成熟度的信息干预策略。传统模式下的信息干预大多通过电视、报纸、户外广告牌等大众化、公共化和集中化的信息传播方式，干预效果较不理想。本项目基于对城市居民的深度开放式访谈，利用扎根理论技术构建信息干预影响碳能力成熟度的理论模型，借助互联网信息平台，针对性地设计信息干预方案。研究发现除了理性信息和同伴影响对碳能力的影响并不显著，其他信息激励和社会影响变量对居民碳能力具有一定程度的促进作用。在信息激励层面，情感信息对碳能力的影响是大于理性信息的。而在社会心理影响层面，同伴模仿的影响大于认可影响力大于社会规范的。本项目进一步拓展信息干预的内涵及主体外延，构建了不同类型信息干预对大学生节能行为的影响机理综合理论模型，同样基于这些模型开发了相应的调查问卷，检验了相关假设和理论模型。.本项目的研究结果和政策建议对于政府如何通过宏观政策引导微观主体的行为，以及制定和优化低碳引预政策具有重要的参考价值，也有助于推动我国城市居民碳能力成熟度的提升，为城市居民低碳常态化提供可行路径。