住房政策对劳动力迁移的影响机制及政策模拟：基于获取能力的视角

In the next 20 years, the percentage of urban new immigrants in China will reach up to 40%. As a result, cities face the potential worry of non-equilibrium in terms of labor demand and supply and labor structure. Where the hope of China's next two decades growth lies in is to improve the urbanization level and quality as well as to conduct the allocation and ordered adjustment of the cities' industry and labor. In the mid-term of urbanization, the characters of labor mobility have changed. The key factors which influence labor mobility are social rights arranged around house acquirement, which is also the bottleneck of the labor adjustment...Housing policy and mechanism design take an essentialposition in the incentive mechanism structure and the role of China's housing policy is turning to positive intervention social policy in recently years. The actual impact of housing policy on labor market adjustment is more and more obvious, while the function mechanism of it has not attracted enough attention and researches...This programm based on the perspective of house acquirement capability of labor force. We comprehensively use multi-channel questionnaire, statistical data， cases study, comparative policy research, computation coefficient estimation methods to study the mechanism and impact of housing policy on labor mobility. In addition, we use Multi-Agent Based Simulation model (Netlogo platform) and computable general equibrium (CGE) analysis as well as other methods to simulate the impact resultes of housing policies adjustment on urban labor market in different regions.

未来20年,中国大城市新移民将达到40%,城市面临劳动力供求失衡和结构失调的隐忧。提高城市化水平和质量，引导城市产业配置和劳动力有序调整是中国未来二十年发展的希望所在。城市化中期,劳动力迁移特征发生转变, 以住房为核心的社会权利安排成为影响劳动力迁移关键因素，是劳动力调整的瓶颈问题。.住房政策和制度设计在劳动力迁移的激励机制结构中占有重要位置，中国的住房政策角色也正转向积极干预的社会政策。住房政策对劳动力市场调整的现实影响越来越大，但是其中的运行机理与政策含义尚未引起足够的重视和研究。.本研究基于劳动力住房获取能力的视角,综合运用问卷访谈、统计数据、案例研究、政策比较、计量参数估计等方法，研究住房政策影响劳动力迁移的机制及其效应，并通过多主体仿真建模（Netlogo）和可计算一般均衡（CGE）分析等手段模拟各种住房政策调整对不同区域城市劳动力市场的影响效果。

未来20年,中国大城市新移民将达到40%,城市面临劳动力供求失衡和结构失调的隐忧。提高城市化水平和质量，引导城市产业和劳动力配置与有序调整是中国未来二十年发展的希望所在。城市化中期,劳动力迁移特征发生转变, 以住房为核心的社会权利安排成为影响劳动力迁移关键因素，是劳动力调整的瓶颈问题。. 住房政策和制度设计在劳动力迁移的激励机制结构中占有重要位置，中国的住房政策角色也正转向积极干预的社会政策。住房政策对劳动力市场调整的现实影响越来越大，但是其中的运行机理与政策含义尚未引起足够的重视和研究。. 本研究基于劳动力住房获取能力的视角,综合运用多渠道的问卷访谈、统计数据和跨国比较进行系统研究。本研究发现，由于住房政策体系的不完备性，住房政策与房地产宏观调控政策和区域发展政策交织。宏观调控的金融政策、土地政策、税收政策通过影响住房市场供求关系，对住房政策覆盖群体产生较大冲击，进而对劳动力迁移产生挤出效应；不同产业结构的城市及其以区域发展为导向的产业促进政策，对劳动力流动的影响主要体现在劳动市场的需求结构和数量上；从微观机制上看，城乡及城市内部的三元分割体系，不仅通过户籍、教育、职业等渠道对劳动力就业和收入产生影响，也通过异质性住房市场渠道影响到劳动力住房的获取能力，并因此加剧了分割效应，并导致城乡住房投资的错配。对住房政策有效性评估表明，加大保障性住房投资对人口流动具有积极作用