财税政策变动冲击的经济波动效应模拟与财政宏观调控的政策优化研究：理论、模型与实证

The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a comprehensive plan for a new round reform of China’s fiscal and taxation system. When the decline of macroeconomic potential growth rate and its cyclical slowdown coexist, all fiscal reform nearly comes to stagnation. Since fiscal policy has the double effects of supply management and demand management, reform of the fiscal and taxation system affects both the supply side of the production cost, capital return, labor supply and efficiency promotion and the demand side of investment, consumption and export behavior. Therefore, aggregate demand and aggregate supply change with the performance of economic fluctuation. Introduced exogenous shocks of structural tax reduction, macro tax level, budget rules and fiscal intergovernmental relations, this project is to build a model of extended dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), which is embedded with the production function, the utility function and the constraint conditions. And then the model is done with calibration parameters, dynamic simulation, counterfactual analysis and welfare effects evaluation so that their economic fluctuation effects and their influencing mechanism can be analyzed. To deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system under the New Normal means promoting the reform of the supply side (long-term goal) and preventing the economic cyclical downturn (short-term goal). However, the dual objective is often in conflict. For this purpose, this project will also discuss the policy optimization of realizing the dual goals of fiscal and taxation system reform.

党的十八届三中全会对中国新一轮财税改革进行了全面部署，但在GDP潜在增速下降与周期性放缓并存背景下，各项改革进展较为缓慢。财税政策的变动，既对供给端的生产成本、资本收益、劳动供给和效率提升产生冲击，也影响到需求端的投资、消费和出口行为，而由此引起的总需求与总供给匹配状况的变化，即为经济波动效应。将结构性减税、宏观税负水平决定、财政预算规则和政府间财政关系调整等主要财税政策变动冲击模型化，嵌入到生产函数、效用函数和约束方程里，构建扩展的动态随机一般均衡模型，并进行参数估计、动态模拟、反事实分析和福利效应评估，分析它们对经济波动的冲击及其影响机制。在新常态下推进财税改革，肩负助推供给侧结构性改革、提高GDP潜在增速（长期目标）和防范经济周期性下行、熨平经济波动（短期目标）的双重使命，但它们在一定程度上是相冲突的，为此本项目还将探讨协同实现财税改革“双重政策目标”的财政宏观调控政策优化问题。

当前，中国特色社会主义进入了新时代，面对社会主要矛盾的转化，经济发展也由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。高质量发展，是体现新发展理念（即“五大发展理念”）的发展。党的十八届三中全会关于全面深化改革的系统部署中，以前所未有的历史高度定位财政，赋予了财政以“国家治理的基础和重要支柱”的特殊定位。这意味着财政职能是要往外拓展，从经济领域伸展到国家治理领域。党的十九大报告更是明确提出，要加快建立现代财政制度。为此，本项目首先从助力于高质量发展的新视角，从财政支出、财政收入和政府间财政关系三个方面，较为系统地研究了财政政策变迁的经济增长质量效应及深化现代财税体制改革的对策建议问题。其次，从财政预算的视角，研究了财政预算规则变迁、地方政府经济竞争与财政宏观调控优化内在关系问题。最后，从政府间财政关系的视角，探讨了财政分权、中央对地方转移支付对地方政府经济增长目标管理、财政支出效率、区域经济协调发展的影响及其政策优化问题。