Cyberspace网络化效应建模方法研究

Cyberspace networked effect is the phenomena and mechanism of large-scale cascading effect, which may be arise by some partial effect, because of existing of networked informational infrastructures and adaptive information confrontational behavior. Networked effect brings a lot of advantages, and also the cascading invalidation,the most tremendously risk. Because of traditional modeling theory and method can not be used to research cyberspace, it is necessary to develop new modeling method of cyberspace networked effect. In this paper, based on the complex network theory and Agent modeling method for complex system science, our work take a regional air defense system of systems as the study case, focusing on the large-scale information network, modeling networked adaptive information confrontational behavior and networked interaction for the cognitive field. At the same time, relying on the simulation prototype system, we carry out the typical cyber system of systems countermeasure simulation test, verifying the accuracy of modeling method of networked effect. Meanwhile, we provide theoretical guidance for the analysis of networked effect mechanism in war complex system, the construction and protection of battlefield information infrastructure, the research of system of systems combat effectiveness evaluation. In addition, achievement of this study is used for research of security of national cyber, critical infrastructure and other fields.

Cyberspace网络化效应，是指由于存在网络化的信息基础设施以及自适应性网络信息对抗行为，局部效应可能会引发大规模级联效应的现象和机理。网络化效应在产生互连互通互操作等便利的同时，也会带来级联失效的巨大风险。传统物理空间建模理论与方法难以解决网络化效应面临的诸多新问题，迫切需要提出Cyberspace网络化效应建模新方法。本项目以复杂网络理论、基于Agent建模方法为指导，以某区域防空体系中Cyberspace对抗为研究实 例，重点研究大尺度信息网络描述方法、自适应信息对抗行为以及跨域关联和网络化交互建模方法等内容。同时，依托仿真原型系统，开展仿真实验，在验证网络化效应建模方法正确性的同时，为战争复杂系统级联效应机理分析、战场信息基础设施建设与防护、体系对抗战法研究以及效能评估等应用性研究提供理论方法指导。此外，研究成果对国家Cyber安全、关键基础设施建设等领域有借鉴意义。

当前，Cyberspace已成为继陆、海、空、天之后的第五维战场，给战争复杂系统带来诸多新变化。运用建模仿真方法研究Cyberspace是一条可行思路，越来越得到业界的广泛认同，而目前Cyberspace建模仍然沿用传统物理空间的建模思路，很难解决建模面临的新问题，迫切需要突破Cyberspace传统建模理论与方法，其中，最为突出的就是网络化效应建模问题。为探索cyberspace仿真带来的建模新问题，进而构建cyberspace网络化效应建模理论和方法体系，课题组以网络化、信息域和认知域等为突破口，重点研究了cyberspace信息网络描述、实体建模、行为建模、网络化交互建模等内容，提出了大尺度、异构、动态信息网络描述与建模方法、虚实结合的cyberspace实体建模方法、基于规则的自适应行为建模方法和cyber网络化交互效应建模方法等创新性成果，成功应用于重大项目，发挥了实际军事效益，同时，通过仿真实践也验证了cyberspace建模基础理论与方法的先进性和可行性。