基于多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应的化工园区动态风险评估及管理研究

When fire, explosion and leakage accidents occur at chemical industrial park, it will form multi-field spatial-temporal coupling consisting of heat radiation, explosion overpressure and toxicant diffusion concentration, which may induce domino effects further. Compared to single-field induced domino effects and spatial coupled multi-field induced domino effects studied previously, spatial-temporal coupled multi-field induced domino effects are closer to real-world accident scenarios, however, applicable dynamic risk assessment model and inherent safety dynamic risk management model are not available at present. By using theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, this project studies dynamic assessment models for accident escalation probability and death probability of domino effects induced by multi-field spatial-temporal coupling, reveals changing law of accident escalation probability and death probability with time and coupling conditions under multi-field spatial-temporal coupling, and builds dynamic risk assessment model for domino effects induced by multi-field spatial-temporal coupling; based on dynamic risk assessment model, studies storage configuration optimization strategy for risk management of induced domino effects, reveals risk reduction effect law of storage configuration optimization with regard to risk of induced domino effects, and builds inherent safety dynamic risk management model based on storage configuration optimization. Research of this project will enrich existing theory and methods of dynamic risk assessment and management for domino effects in chemical industrial park, and provide theory basis and supporting methods for risk prevention & control of catastrophe in chemical industrial park in China.

化工园区发生火灾、爆炸、泄漏事故时，会形成火灾热辐射、爆炸超压及毒物泄漏扩散浓度多场时空耦合，进而诱发多米诺效应。相比于前人研究的单场和多场空间耦合诱发多米诺效应，多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应更加接近真实事故场景，目前的研究尚未建立适用的动态风险评估模型及本质安全动态风险管理模型。本项目借助理论分析和数值模拟，系统研究多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应的事故升级概率和人员死亡概率动态评估模型，揭示多场时空耦合下事故升级概率和人员死亡概率随时间及耦合条件的变化规律，建立多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应的动态风险评估模型；基于动态风险评估模型，研究面向多米诺效应动态风险管理的储量配置优化策略，揭示储量配置优化对多米诺风险的降低作用规律，建立基于储量配置优化的本质安全动态风险管理模型。本项目研究可完善现有的化工园区多米诺效应动态风险评估及管理理论及方法，为我国化工园区重大事故灾难风险防控提供理论依据和方法支撑。

化工园区发生火灾、爆炸、泄漏事故时，会形成火灾热辐射、爆炸超压及毒物泄漏扩散浓度多场时空耦合，进而诱发多米诺效应。相比于前人研究的单场和多场空间耦合诱发多米诺效应，多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应更加接近真实事故场景，目前的研究尚未建立适用的动态风险评估模型及本质安全动态风险管理模型。本项目借助理论分析和数值模拟，系统研究了多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应的事故升级概率和人员死亡概率动态评估模型，揭示了多场时空耦合下事故升级概率和人员死亡概率随时间及耦合条件的变化规律，建立了多场时空耦合诱发多米诺效应的动态风险评估模型；基于动态风险评估模型，研究了面向多米诺效应动态风险管理的储量配置优化策略，揭示了储量配置优化对多米诺风险的降低作用规律，建立了基于储量配置优化的本质安全动态风险管理模型。本研究可完善现有的化工园区多米诺效应动态风险评估及管理理论及方法，为我国化工园区重大事故灾难风险防控提供理论依据和方法支撑。项目成果在国际风险评估、安全科学领域权威期刊已发表SCI论文11篇，包括Reliability Engineering and System Safety 3篇、Risk Analysis 1篇、Safety Science 2篇、Process Safety and Environmental Protection 4篇、Fire Technology 1篇，1篇论文入选ESI高被引和热点论文。项目负责人受邀参编英文专著2部。获登记软件著作权2项。培养博士研究生1名、硕士研究生2名。项目负责人受邀担任中国消防协会科普教育工作委员会委员、第二届全国热安全科学与技术研讨会风险评估专题共同主席等兼职。在The 4th International Workshop on Environment and Geoscience和第一届建筑防火大会作主旨邀请报告。获中国消防协会全国消防科学传播先进个人、The 3rd International Workshop on Environment and Geoscience (IWEG2020)优秀口头报告（Outstanding Oral Presentation）等奖励。