云南典型高原山地区域快速城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性及其风险管理研究

The vulnerability research has become one of the most active front fields and an important analysis tool in the realm of global change and sustainability science. As an unusually and complicatedly man-land relationship areal system, the plateau mountain area has been raised great interests and attention worldwide. This program will deeply probe into basic principles of evaluating the vulnerability of cultivated land use system in the process of the rapid urbanization in the typical plateau mountain environmental region of Yunnan Province, systematically analyze mechanisms and the factors of influencing cultivated land use system vulnerability in the process of the rapid urbanization in mountainous area, scientifically construct index system and reasonably establish the evaluation system and practical model for evaluating the cultivated land use system vulnerability. On the basis, the typical case studies of five different geomorphologic patterns of Yunnan plateau mountain environment will be adopted, and the technical integration of Remote Sensing and GIS technology, field survey, comprehensive analysis will be applied in this project. It aims to put forward the controlling and adjustment mechanism of the system vulnerability in the process of rapid urbanization development of Yunnan typically plateau mountain area, explore the application approaches and modes for implementing the strategies of "building urban and industrial projects on mountain land" and "construction of mountainous towns" in Yunnan Province according to the evaluation results of the typical regions, and then summarize a set of scientific and practical principles and methods system for evaluating the vulnerability of cultivated land use system and its regulationg and controlling mechanism in the process of the rapid urbanization in the plateau mountain environmental background regions of Yunnan Province.The results can provide a new ideal, theory and practice basis for the social and economic development, and coordinating contradiction among population, society and economic and resources environment.

脆弱性研究已成为全球变化及可持续性科学领域关注的前沿领域之一和重要的分析工具，高原山区作为一个特殊的地域系统受到了高度重视。在深入探讨云南高原山区快速城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性评价原理、系统分析云南高原山地环境快速城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性机制和影响因素、科学构建评价指标体系、合理确定评价系统基础上，以5大典型高原山地地貌区为例，运用遥感、GIS、实地调查、模型评价及综合分析等多种技术集成进行实证研究，提出云南典型高原山地环境下快速城市化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性调控机制，并探索典型区域评价成果在云南实施新型城镇化和'建设用地山上、建设山地城镇'战略中的应用途径和模式，进而提炼一套科学的云南高原山地环境快速城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性评价原理与方法体系。为实现云南山区社会经济发展，协调未来人口、社会经济与资源环境的矛盾提供新思路、理论和实践依据。

本研究基本按照项目申报书设定目标和内容执行。项目首先系统梳理了该领域的研究现状，分析了云南省城镇化进程与耕地利用的演变趋势。在此基础上，界定了耕地利用系统脆弱性概念和涵义，提出高原山地环境城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性分析的新视角。从土地利用的基本竞争模型、城镇化与耕地资源利用之间的“胁迫－约束”机制，耕地利用系统变化的城镇化“正—负”双重效应方面研究了城镇化发展与耕地利用系统之间的相互作用机制，同时对云南省耕地利用系统脆弱性驱动因素分析。从不同层面评价云南省城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性状况，提出了在云南实施新型城镇化和‘建设用地山上、建设山地城镇’战略中，耕地利用系统脆弱性的风险管理措施。综合上述结果，本研究为快速城镇化进程中耕地利用系统脆弱性评价原理的研究提供了坚实的工作基础，也为实现云南山区社会经济发展，协调未来人口、社会经济与资源环境的矛盾提供新思路、理论和实践依据。