突变信息非对称情况下的供应链信息披露模型研究

There are full of many uncertain factors in the modern logistics and supply chain, and the decision environment is often disrupted by many unexpected events. Especially, the asymmetric information caused by the dirupted events would result in more negative influence on the coordinated well-functioning supply chain system. This project takes the supply chain under the asymmetric disrupted information as research subject, and focuses on the following three aspects: drove the switch from the traditional symmetric disrupted information to the asymmetric cases; from single asymmetric case to dual asymmetric disrupted informations of two-level players; furthermore, from single supply chain to competing supply chains under asymmetric disrupted information. Based on the non-cooperative game, this project will carry on the research of production mode of channel, the emergency preparation, order strategy, coordination mechanism of information disclosure and robustness of coordination mechanism. It will develop some game models by using the multi-disciplinary theory and method, such as consumer behavior theory, management science, information economics, principal-agent theory, computer simulation technology and systematic theory and so on. Simultaneously, it will study the influences of the asymmetric disrupted information on the decisions of each player and the channel. .This project puts forward theoretically how to improve the abilities of the supply chain dealing with asymmetric disrupted information, and it is of a significant practical value to enhance the competitive power of enterprise or the supply chain, and there will also be important reference worth for our large aircraft project.

在现代供应链各个环节中，充满着许多不确定因素，经常会遇到各种突发扰动风险，特别是这些扰动事件所导致的不对称信息可能对于运作良好的供应链系统造成更为负面的影响。本项目以非对称扰动信息下的供应链为研究对象，主要从三个方面进行研究：从传统的对称扰动信息转向非对称扰动信息情形；从单层的非对称扰动信息转向供需双层非对称联合扰动信息情形；进一步，在非对称扰动信息下，从单一供应链转向竞争型供应链情形。本项目以非合作博弈为主要工具，结合消费者行为理论、管理学、信息经济学、委托代理理论及计算机仿真技术，建立博弈模型，对系统的生产模式、扰动下的应急准备、订购策略、信息披露的协同机制及其鲁棒性等问题进行研究，分析不对称扰动信息对供应链各个参与者及渠道决策的影响。.本项目从理论上提出如何改善供应链应对非对称扰动信息能力，对提高我国企业或供应链的竞争能力具有重要的实践意义，对我国进行的大飞机项目具有重要参考价值。

在现代供应链各个环节中，经常会遇到各种突发扰动风险，且这种扰动信息在成员间具有不对称性的特点，本项目以二级供应链系统为研究背景，以运筹学与优化理论为主要工具，运用信息经济学、应急决策及管理学等相关理论，对供应链系统的生产规划、订购\定价决策、客服水平等决策进行研究，分析不对称的扰动信息对供应链各个参与者及渠道绩效的影响，并利用契约机制理论设计了系统的信息披露的协同策略，同时进一步研究信息的价值以及在不对称信息情况下使用协同机制的动机问题。本项目主要研究工作如下：. （1）针对由多个非对称性的零售商和一个供应商组成的供应链，建立了需求突发扰动情形下的供需双方博弈和分析模型，设计了系统的协调机制；（2） 针对两个销售周期的供应链系统，建立了具有损失规避型零售商的供应链订货策略与分析模型；（3）针对二级供应链中供货商产出、市场需求均为随机性等特点，建立了零售商主导型的后备供货情形下的供需双方博弈模型；（4）考虑了常规供应商可能的生产中断，且容量分配随机等特点，研究了系统的外包策略，同时研究了渠道力对于供应链绩效的影响。（5）针对两条竞争供应链的决策环境，建立了需求扰动情形下的信息披露博弈模型。. 本项目的研究进一步丰富了供应链应急管理的现有理论，并提出了如何改善供应链应对供货风险的能力，对提高我国企业或供应链的竞争能力具有重要的实践意义，对我国大飞机供应商管理具有重要参考价值。