基于关联规则的变化环境下山洪灾害社区抗逆力模糊动态评估研究

Influenced by extreme precipitation events and rapid urbanization, community risk assessment of flash flood has become a critical and scientific problem. Focused on complexity and relevance of risks indicators of flash flood, and heterogeneity among country, transitional, and town communities in flash flood risk management, this study carry out in northern Guangdong, consider uncertainty of community risk assessment in a changing environment, and dynamic assessment of community resilience as the key scientific issues, a fuzzy and dynamic method on community resilience assessment of flash flood disaster is present. The objectives of this study are: (1) to illustrate the correlation among risk factors, runoff and risk grade based on association rules, and the quantitative risk assessment index system is built; (2) according to FAHP, the weight vectors of community resilience indicators are calculated; (3) using space information diffusion, the fuzzy relation matrix in different scenarios are established, dynamic risk assessment model based on fuzzy mapping is proposed, and the dynamic risk is described by GIS. This study has great scientific significance to extend the previous research in risk assessment method; furthermore, the results of this research not only contribute to participatory community-based flash flood risk management, but also risk reduction in northern Guangdong.

在极端降水事件频发和快速城镇化影响下的山洪灾害社区风险评估，已成为一个亟需解决的科学问题。本项目以粤北地区为研究区域，针对山洪风险因子复杂交叉性的特点，瞄准农村社区、过渡社区和城镇社区在山洪灾害风险管理中的异质性，将变化环境下社区山洪灾害风险不确定性建模，及社区抗逆力动态评估作为关键科学问题，研究不同山洪危险度下粤北山洪灾害社区抗逆力的模糊动态评估方法。采用关联规则分析，挖掘“风险因子-地表径流变化-风险等级”的关联关系，构建基于FAHP的山洪灾害社区抗逆力多维评估指标体系，研究不同山洪危险度下社区抗逆力的权重矢量场；通过空间信息扩散理论，分析不同类型社区情景的模糊关系矩阵，研究基于模糊映射的山洪灾害社区抗逆力动态评估模型，并采用GIS技术绘制动态风险图。本项目对发展粤北山洪灾害风险评估理论和方法具有重要科学意义，其研究成果对完善社区参与式灾害管理进而减轻粤北山洪灾害风险具有广泛应用前景。

在极端降水事件频发和快速城镇化影响下的山洪灾害社区风险评估，已成为一个亟需解决的科学问题。本研究分析了暴雨山洪灾害的总体组合环境条件，采用关联规则分析，通过单因子和多因子方式，挖掘“风险因子-地表径流变化-风险等级”的关联关系，提出了基于云信息扩散模型（CID）的山洪风险评估方法；从经济维度、制度维度、信息与沟通维度、社会维度、物理维度，构建基于模糊层次分析法（FAHP）的山洪灾害社区抗逆力多维评估指标体系，研究不同山洪风险度下社区抗逆力的权重矢量场，采用多学科耦合模型揭示了山洪视角下社区抗逆力的网络层级关系；通过空间信息扩散理论，分别分析城镇、村落、城乡结合社区的抗逆力评估模糊关系矩阵，构建基于模糊映射的山洪灾害社区抗逆力动态评估模型，并采用兰德函数，以淹没水位或淹没面积比为动态参数，揭示了社区抗逆力的时变效应。结果表明，在各超越概率下，城镇社区韧性均高于村落社区及城乡结合社区；在不同山洪演变情景下，三种类型社区的灾害韧性在短时间内均出现较为急剧的下降，随后再呈上升趋势，且城镇社区下降拐点的韧性值大于村落社区和城乡结合社区。本项目对发展山洪灾害的风险评估理论和方法具有重要科学意义，其研究成果对于完善社区参与式灾害管理进而减轻山洪易发区灾害风险具有广泛的应用前景。