目标导向型群组DEMATEL变权决策方法研究

To solve the inherent disadvantages of conventional group decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), namely, the explicit processing of fuzzy direct influence evaluations and judgment scales are also given arbitrarily, the importance of each factor itself is ignored, and the group judgment information is integrated unscientifically. In this project, on the basis of finished relevant projects, a new group DEMATEL with variable weights (VWs) which may reflect well goal preferences of the decision maker will be derived by adopting the organization strategy theory, group decision theory, behavior decision theory, evidence theory, decision-making theory with VWs, and complex systems theory. First, the key basic theory for group DEMATEL will be analyzed in details; second, the information derived way for the expert information and the integration mechanism for group experts’ information are proposed. Then, a decision-making model with VWs which reflects goal-oriented behavior of the decision maker and its weight varying mechanism, are both suggested. Next, lots of simulation experiments and model validations can be performed further. Finally, modification and improvement jobs shall be performed by finding current issues. In short, the project could not only improve and develop the theory of conventional group DEMATEL, but also could be applied to solve the problems in the real world.

为克服和解决现行群组DEMATEL方法存在的本质缺陷(即专家偏好判断表达方式和评价标度过于随意、忽视系统因素自我影响关系、专家群组信息集成机理科学性差等)，申报项目在已完成前期相关研究的基础上，通过引入组织战略理论、群组决策理论、行为决策理论、证据理论、变权决策理论和复杂系统理论，提出能够切实反映系统决策主体目标偏好导向的群组DEMATEL变权实现方法。首先，针对群组DEMATEL决策方法核心基础理论予以深入分析；然后，系统地研究了群组DEMATEL专家判断信息提取模式和群组信息集成机理。之后，提出目标导向型群组DEMATEL变权决策模型及其变权机理；在此基础上，开展相关方法与模型的仿真实验研究与实证研究。最后，根据研究中发现的新情况、新问题对相关模型方法进行修正与完善。申报项目不仅有发展传统群组DEMATEL方法的理论创新价值，而且也有着较强的实践意义。

为克服现有DEMATEL决策方法所存在的理论缺陷，如评价标度选择的随意性、忽视因素自依赖影响关系、难以有效反映决策主体专家的战略偏好、专家判断信息集成方法科学性差等，本项目在引入组织战略理论、群组决策理论、行为决策和D-S证据理论、复杂系统决策等理论的基础上，首先通过构建复杂系统DEMATEL层次结构，体现系统因素与方案情境相关联的特征，然后提出了不同判断信息(不完备信息、多轮次专家交互信息、动态环境下的信息)提取模式下的群组DEMATEL决策方法，并针对关键问题(如综合影响矩阵的阈值确定、自依赖影响关系的科学界定、考虑因素正负影响关系的DEMATEL方法实现步骤、差异专家标度下的信息综合集成模式)给出了针对性的解决方法。在此基础上，提出目标导向型群组DEMATEL变权实现方法及变权机理。最后，开展了相关方法的仿真实验研究与实证研究。依据研究中出现的新问题、新情况予以多轮次反馈修正。与现有成果相比，本项目研究不仅具有发展和完善传统DEMATEL方法的理论创新价值，而且在养老服务、绿色能源、烟草产业可持续领域发展得到了应用，体现出较强的实践推广价值。