遥感与GIS支持下的草地蝗虫预测模型与技术系统研究

The mechanism of relations of the climatic, vegetation and topographic elements with grasshopper occurrence in the region around Qinghai Lake being the study area of this project were studied based on the different technical measures and methods including remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS), field survey and sampling, and laboratory analysis. Through a integrated analysis on the remotely sensed data, the field measured spectra of ground surface and the sampled grasshopper habitat data the models indicating the relation between grasshopper occurrence, habitat type and remotely sensed data were developed, and three different grasshopper prediction models including the macroscopic model, microscopic model based on the data in raster form, and the Logistic regression model were established. Moreover, using the methods such as the spatial statistics analysis and Universal Kriging the spatial clustering features of grasshoppers in the study area at two spatial scales were discovered, i.e. 13 km to 16 km at the larger scale and 120m to 140m and 300m to 1300m at smaller scale. Finally, a technical system used for monitoring grasshopper activities was initially established..This study is the first attempt in China to conduct the research on prediction of grasshopper occurrence based on remote sensing and GIS, and has provided the methodology which can be used in the similar studies in other regions of the country. In addition, a remarkable economic and social benefit has achieved from this study. According to the estimation by the Qinghai Provincial Administration Station for Grassland, the most important user of the results of this project, thanks to this study and among the grasslands suffering from grasshopper damage in the study there are 140,100 hectares of the grassland have received an effective monitoring on and protection from grasshopper damage. In other words, nearly 52.54 million kg fresh grass and about 10.80 million Yuan (RMB) have been saved from grasshopper damage if 375kg fresh grass per hectare is taken as the standard. Moreover, through this study a monograph and 18 papers have been published, one post-doctor student and two doctor students who involved in this study have successfully finished their research or study works. Finally, the results of this study have been invited by one international conference for oral presentation in addition to international academic exchange with foreign scholars for two times..

通过定点、定时实地观察及对现有各类信息源的分析，系统收集研究区（环青海湖地区）蝗虫及其动态变化和生境参数数据，建立数据库。构建蝗虫发生与生境参数关系模型。基于这些模型，借助现代遥感技术与GIS技术，建立草地蝗虫发生和成灾的预测技术系统。此系统稍げ饣非嗪：厍蹦旰痛文瓴莸鼗瘸媲痹诜⑸那魇萍翱赡芊⑸牡氐恪