纵向关联产业视角下猪肉价格形成与传递机制研究

The characteristics of the price transmission in the longitudinal associated industries can be regarded as an important indicator of the measure of the efficient allocation of resources and the market integration.In recent years, the cyclical imbalance between supply and demand and the price volatility aroused widespread concern in the meat industry ,especially in the pig industry, which had a strong impact on the overall macroeconomic stability and people's consumption.At the same time, it is not conducive to the stability of the long-term development of the livestock and poultry production and the residents' consumption of meat. This project examines the price formation and transfer situation in the pork industry chain longitudinal association when external shocks, and analyses the mechanism of the price formation, transmission characteristics and its causes by use of the market microstructure theory, the relevance theory,the industry manufacturers intermediate layer theory and so on. ⑴The deep-seated reasons of transmission rules and forming the price asymmetric transmission in the pork vertical industry chain; ⑵The sources of the intermediate business' market power and its impact on price formation and transmission in the pork vertical industry chain; ⑶The different scale of farms' ( or households') reaction behavior on the fluctuation of live pigs and pork price. The above study reveals that the cause of the imbalance between supply and demand of the pig production, provides decision-making reference for improving the operation efficiency of China's pork vertical industry chain, it expects to provide some useful suggestions for the healthy development of the pork industry in china.

价格在纵向关联产业间形成和传递特征可视为衡量资源有效分配和市场一体化的重要指示器。近年来我国猪肉周期性供求失衡和价格大幅波动引起了社会广泛关注，给整个宏观经济造成较大冲击。同时，也不利于生猪养殖业发展和居民猪肉消费的稳定。 本项目运用市场微观结构理论、产业关联理论、厂商中间层理论等，考察外界冲击时价格在猪肉纵向关联产业链中的形成与传递情况,分析价格形成机制、传递特征及其原因。具体研究内容为：⑴猪肉纵向产业链价格非对称性传递规律及其形成的内在深层次原因；⑵猪肉纵向产业链中中间商市场势力来源及其对价格形成和传递的影响；⑶不同规模养殖场（或户）对生猪、猪肉价格波动的反应行为。以上研究揭示造成生猪生产周期性供求失衡的内在原因，为提高我国猪肉纵向产业链的运作效率提供决策参考，期望能为我国猪肉产业健康发展提供有益建议。

随着社会分工的深化，生猪养殖业与种植业、屠宰加工业、猪肉批发、零售等纵向关联产业联系日益紧密，在打破养殖部门自身封闭循环、实现其高效增长的同时，也延长了猪肉纵向产业链条。纵向产业链条中各个分散、独立的个体通过垂直职能分工下各主体的关联与协作，共同满足社会对猪肉产品的需求。本项目从猪肉纵向关联产业视角，研究生猪养殖主体、屠宰加工企业、猪肉批发、零售等主体对生猪价格传递、波动和形成的影响。.实证数据主要来自于两部分：一是对生猪主产区养殖场（户）、屠宰加工企业、猪肉批发零售等主体的实地调查，二是统计部门公布的历年《中国畜牧兽医年鉴》、《中国农业统计年鉴》等，以及中国农业部、中国畜牧业信息网等网站。.研究结论如下：.（1）猪肉纵向关联产业链中各环节主体过多产生了较高的利润加成和运营成本，市场信息传递的不完全和不对称，以小规模养殖场（户）为主的生猪养殖结构及其养殖者从众行为，导致了生猪价格传递出现了非对称性。.（2）猪肉纵向产业链中的屠宰加工、猪肉批发等市场主体能够利用信息优势对下游的生猪养殖场（户）进行逆向压价，不但扭曲了生猪市场价格、降低养殖场（户）利润，也误导了养殖场（户）生猪生产行为。.（3）养殖场（户）行为是生猪价格形成的关键因素，且不同规模生猪养殖场（户）生产行为存在明显差异。散养户和小规模养殖场采取“追涨杀跌”的顺周期生产行为，大中规模养殖场生产行为比较稳定。.(4)由于信息缺失，散养户及小规模养殖场过分关注当前市场价格和跟随其他养殖主体的生产行为，导致了众多散养户及小规模养殖场同时进出市场的从众行为，是造成生猪价格周期性波动的主要原因。.本项目拓展了被传统经济学称为“黑箱”（Black Box）的价格形成及传递过程，探索和检验了猪肉价格非对称性传递、周期性波动幅度过大、频率过高、各环节收入不合理的内在机制和原因，为生猪产业健康发展提供了有益的借鉴。