超网络视角的产业发展波动区域间扩散效应研究

The change and innovation of technology promotes the development of industries, causing the upgrading of traditional industries and the arising of emerging industries, leading to industrial development fluctuations such as the replacement of old and new industries and the output change of industries, and promoting the conversion of old and new kinetic energy. Because of general economic link between industries, industrial development fluctuations caused by technological innovation, market change and industrial policy can propagate among industries, resulting in the development of other industries. If the industrial development fluctuations spread across the regional boundaries, the industrial development of a region will not only promote the economic development of the region, but also promote the economic development of other regions, forming the synergetic development of regional economy. The influence of priority development of different industries in different regions is different, so the development of different industries in different regions has different propagate effects. Adopting system thinking, according as the economic system is constituted of industries and enterprises, and based on super network perspective, this research will analyze the inner mechanism of the interregional propagate of industrial development fluctuations, construct the ‘industry-enterprise-region’ super network model to describe the industrial development fluctuations’ interregional spread, and design the index system of this super network to quantify the industrial development fluctuations’ interregional propagating effect. On this basis, we will build the industrial development fluctuations’ interregional propagating dynamic super network. Then in view of the technology development momentum, the policy change situation and the market demand circumstances at present, we will optimize the structure of industrial development fluctuations’ interregional propagating super network of selected regions by simulation, so as to optimize the interregional propagating effect of industrial development fluctuations of the selected regions. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the synergetic and full development of regional economic, to accelerate the efficient conversion of new and old kinetic energy, and to achieve the goal of high quality development of China's economy under the new normal.

技术变革与创新推动了产业发展，促进了传统产业升级与新兴产业出现，导致了产业新旧更替与产出变化等产业发展波动现象。产业间存在广泛的经济关联，技术创新、市场变化、产业政策等引起的产业发展波动会在产业间扩散，推动其他产业的发展；产业发展波动的跨区域扩散则会导致区域经济的协同发展，但是不同区域不同产业优先发展的影响力是不同的，从而不同区域不同产业的发展波动具有不同的扩散效应。本课题采用系统思维，根据经济系统的中观产业构成和微观企业构成，基于超网络视角，分析产业发展波动跨区域扩散的内在机理，构建描述产业发展波动跨区域扩散的“产业-企业-区域”超网络模型，设计相应的网络指标体系，量化产业发展波动的区域间扩散效应；在此基础上，构建产业发展波动区域间扩散动态超网络模型，通过模拟仿真优化目标地区的超网络结构，以优化目标地区的产业发展波动区域间扩散效应，从而实现区域经济协同、充分、高质、高效发展的目标。

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的不断推进，新兴产业“无中生有”与传统产业“有中出新”导致的新旧产业更替与产业产出变化等产业发展波动，因普遍存在的经济关联在区域间扩散，推动了区域经济竞合与区域经济协同。具有不同地位的产业（产业群）、企业（企业群）对发展波动在经济系统中扩散的影响力不同，同时产业发展波动的区域间扩散又与技术扩散、项目合作等经济要素的跨区域关联密切相关。因此明确产业、企业、要素对产业发展波动在经济系统中扩散的影响力对于区域经济竞合、区域经济协同等政策制定至关重要。. 本项目基于系统思维，采用超网络理论与方法，研究产业发展波动区域间扩散效应。主要内容包括：第一，把超网络理论与经济实际相结合，在分析产业发展波动区域间扩散机理基础上，构建了产业发展波动区域间扩散超网络概念模型——“要素-企业-产业-区域”超网络；第二，基于区域间投入产出数据、关键企业数据等信息，构建了产业发展波动区域间扩散超网络定量模型——“企业-产业-区域”超网络；第三，开发设计了超网络层内和层间结构指标体系及其算法，描述产业发展波动区域间扩散效应；第四，“企业-产业-区域”超网络及相关模型的应用研究及相应策略研究；第五，基于动态视角，以企业网络和产业网络的优化为基础，开展区域网络的相关优化问题研究。. 三年来，本项目组在人民出版社出版了专著《产业发展波动的区域间扩散——基于超网络视角的研究》；在《经济问题探索》《科技进步与对策》《华东经济管理》《Ocean and Coastal Management》等国内外期刊上共发表学术论文8篇，其中SCI和SSCI双检索2篇，CSSCI检索2篇，CSSCI扩展版检索2篇；另外已成稿论文“超网络视角的大国间经济波动相互影响研究”等4篇，目前处于外审、修回、编委会审稿等状态；形成“东亚500强企业的产业归属数据库”等3个数据库。. 本项目深化了超网络理论与方法在经济管理领域中的应用，研究成果为我国城市群战略、区域协调发展、参与全球价值链与国际分工等政策的制定提供了依据。