基于复杂网络理论的列车运行图稳定性优化研究

Emergencies such as natural disasters and railway accidents urge the research on the train timetable stability optimization. Statistics theory is to be hired to reveal the train flow network complexity based on the real data of railway operation. The complex network succession break-down hybrid dynamic model is to be built to deeply analyze the interaction mechanism between train flow network and railway line network to describe influence factors of train timetable stability on network level. The relation between buffer time at railway sations and dispatching sections and train timetable stability is to be analyzed. Then network train timetable stability is defined and quantized based on above analysis. The constraints are anylyzed and the optimization model is to be built. The optimization algorithm is to be studied and improved to meet the optimization requirements and solve the problem. The simulation platform is to be bulit to simulate the train operation process to test the train timetable stability which is generated from the solution of the optimization model. The difference between the simulation results and the computing results will be studied to support the adjustment of the model. A whole set of plans will be proposed to optimize the train timetable stability which is very beneficial to dealing with all kinds of emergencies and recoverying the train operatuion order.

铁路自然灾害、事故等突发事件条件迫切需要研究列车运行图稳定性优化问题。利用统计学理论基于铁路实际运营数据揭示列车流网络复杂特性，建立复杂网络相继故障混合动态模型深入分析列车流网络与铁路地理网络的作用机理，阐述影响路网层次列车运行图稳定性因素。分析调度区段列车运行及停站缓冲时分与列车运行图稳定性关系，基于以上两点，定义并量化路网列车运行运行图稳定性，分析运行图稳定性优化中的约束条件，建立路网列车运行图优化模型；研究并改进优化算法，使其适应本课题所建模型优化需求，求解优化模型；建立路网列车运行仿真平台，测试基于上述模型优化运行图方案在随机干扰条件下的稳定性，分析仿真结果与计算测试结果差异，作为模型调整的依据。本课题将提供一套理论与方法优化列车运行图稳定性，利于铁路运输组织部门应对各种突发事件，恢复列车运行秩序。

针对列车运行图稳定性优化问题，本项目展开了三个方面的研究：路网列车运行图稳定性定义及列车服务网络复杂动态特性研究；路网列车运行图稳定性优化技术与方法研究；路网列车运行图稳定性的测试模型建立与测试研究。首先在深入分析列车流网络与铁路地理网络的作用机理的基础上，定义了基于路网的列车运行图稳定性，并研究了列车服务网络的脆弱性等复杂特性；然后，分析了调度区段列车运行及停站缓冲时分与列车运行图稳定性关系及运行图稳定性优化中的约束条件，建立了路网列车运行图优化模型，设计算法进行求解，以优化路网列车运行图；最后，建立了网列车运行仿真平台，测试基于上述模型优化运行图方案在随机干扰条件下的稳定性，分析仿真结果与计算测试结果差异，作为模型调整的依据。本项目的成果研究丰富了列车运行图编制的理论体系，并为铁路运输组织部门应对突发事件、恢复列车运行秩序提供了决策支持。