系统视角下建筑废弃物填埋收费的动态模型研究

An effective landfill disposal charge (LDC) of construction waste could largely promote construction waste reuse and recycling and consequently reduce the amount of construction waste disposed of at landfills. However, it is found from related literature that existing studies have been mainly focused on examining the effectiveness of promulgated LDCs of construction waste, rather than investigating how the construction waste LDC is formulated. Therefore, there is a lack of a mechanism to effectively ascertain a LDC of construction waste before it is implemented in practice. Specifically, the systematic characteristics of construction waste LDCs and interdependences among factors within the waste LDC systems are not properly investigated, which makes it very difficult to develop an effective waste LDC to enhance the effectiveness of the LDC policy. Based on a system dynamics approach, this research aims to ascertain effective LDCs of construction waste from a systematic point of view. In the research, major factors affecting the LDC of construction waste will be examined and interrelations among the factors identified will be analyzed. By developing a system dynamics model which consists of a theoretical model and a simulation model, the effects of dynamic interactions among the factors in the construction waste LDC system on waste reduction and waste landfilling will also be discussed. It is anticipated that an effective construction waste LDC could be developed based on results of a series of scenario analyses. Further, the factors that are influential in construction waste LDC will be identified by carrying out sensitivity analysis, and their policy implications will be interpreted in detail as well. By investigating the construction waste LDC system from the systematic perspective, it is believed that the studied system could be better demonstrated, which can not only promote the development of body of knowledge related to construction waste, but also enhance the capacity of the local authorities in decision making regarding the LDC of construction waste.

合理的建筑废弃物填埋收费可以大大提升废弃物回收再利用，减少废弃物填埋。然而，已有研究未对废弃物填埋收费的形成机制开展深入研究，也未深入探讨废弃物填埋收费的系统性以及收费系统内各因素的相互作用机理，因此无法事先确定合理的填埋取费以提升收费政策的实施成效。本课题拟基于系统动力学原理，以系统的视角考察影响建筑废弃物填埋收费的主要因素，深入剖析影响因素间的相互作用机理，通过构建系统动力学理论模型和定量化仿真模型，着重分析因素间相互关系的动态变化对建筑废弃物减量化和填埋的影响，最终在多种情景模拟的基础上确定一个合理的填埋取费，通过敏感性分析识别影响废弃物收费的主要因素并对其进行深入剖析，阐述其政策内涵。本项目着重对建筑废弃物收费系统的动态性及系统内各因素间的反馈关系进行研究，更能反映现实系统的实际情况，不仅有助于推进相关理论的发展，也有利于提升政府部门在建筑废弃物填埋收费方面决策的合理性与科学性。

本项目旨在基于系统思考思想和系统动力学方法，建立并检验建筑废弃物填埋收费系统的动态模型，结合实际情况设计填埋收费政策情景，开展政策模拟，以期提升当前建筑废弃物填埋收费的实施效果。在三年的执行期中，项目组严格按照项目计划书中设定的研究目标、内容和方案，拓展了研究队伍，优化了研究步骤，主要从三个方面开展了深入研究。一是识别了影响建筑废弃物填埋收费的主要因素并对因素间的相互作用机理进行了分析，进而借助因果反馈回路图建立了理论模型。二是利用系统动力学方法和工具，构建并检验了建筑废弃物填埋收费系统的动态仿真模型。三是设计了多个政策场景，开展了一系列政策模拟和分析，以确定针对某一特定区域的合理的建筑废弃物填埋收费。研究发现不仅充实了已有建筑废弃物管理理论成果，更重要的是，可为我国未来建筑废弃物填埋收费提供直接的、可靠的决策依据。. 本项目选题充分体现了国家自然基金一直倡导的“顶天立地”的思想。从所取得的项目成果来看，超额完成了立项时项目计划书中设定的各项指标。项目组取得的标志性成绩包括：1）在包括European J. Operational Research在内的期刊和会议发表直接相关学术论文20余篇，其中SCI/SSCI收录9篇，EI收录（含SCI/EI双检索）14篇；2）研究成果引起学界同行和社会广泛关注，发表的论文已被同行引用100余次，项目组在各类国内外学术会议宣讲项目成果10余次，获会议优秀论文奖3次，获省级哲学社科奖三等奖1次，项目负责人就建筑废弃物终端弃置问题接受海外媒体电话采访；3）项目负责人的学术影响力得到较大提升，受聘为四川循环经济中心兼职研究员并受邀作学术讲座，受邀作学术会议主题发言1次，被评为四川省学术和技术带头人后备人选；4）进一步夯实了项目负责人在建筑废弃物管理领域的研究基础，为2015年顺利获得国家自然科学基金面上项目资助提供了保障。