基于源网协调的新建风电场装机容量决策理论研究

The accommodation level of wind power is limited and difficult to be upraised sharply in the short term in view of the present technology and operation level of grid, which will result in a large-scale wind curtailment if we don’t take into account the grid’s accommodation ability and develop over-capacity wind farms .Because of the actual tough curtailment, the fund project considers the coordination of “source-grid” and makes the capacity decision of newly built wind farm based on the dynamic accommodation level of wind power in grid and wind resource ,as well as its expectation benefit, which makes sure that wind power is utilized safely economically ,and also fully..This project researches the value of wind power in the integrated node that includes：the operation value of decreased energy consuming, the extra reserve cost ,the extra peaking cost of conventional units and flow limit exceeding penalty cost that is induced for some branches when wind power is integrated into the grid. The mathematical model for the value of wind power is built and its sensitive analysis is proposed in order to find critical load nodes which mainly affect the value. The future dynamic accommodation level of newly built wind farm is forecasted according to the load change trend of critical nodes . Wind energy curtailment and wind energy shortage for newly built wind farm are evaluated considering the accommodation level and wind resource . A capacity decision model of newly built wind farm is put forward taking the investor ‘s benefit into accounts and an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is also given to obtain the optimum capacity and coordinate development of “source-grid” .

由于电网现有技术和运行水平限制，风电接纳能力受限并难以在短时间内大幅度突破，不计及网侧接纳能力，现阶段过速发展风电装机容量，源侧的大规模弃风将是必然的。鉴于我国目前弃风的严重性，考虑源网协调，以网侧未来年并网点动态接纳水平为引导、源侧风资源状况为基础、保障风电场收益为激励，决策新建风电场装机容量，确保风电并网的安全性、经济性和充分利用性。.项目研究并网点风电价值，包括减少能耗的运行价值、增加备用和调峰的附加成本以及风电送出潮流约束越限的惩罚成本，建立并网点风电价值和边际价值数学模型，提出风电价值灵敏度分析方法，判断影响风电边际价值的关键负荷节点，根据关键节点负荷变化趋势，预测新建风电场并网点未来年动态接纳水平。以该水平和风资源为基础，评估新建风电场弃风电量和风电不足电量，考虑风电场期望投资收益，建立风电场装机容量决策模型，利用改进量子粒子群算法求解，获得风电场最佳装机容量，实现源网协调。

由于电网现有运行水平限制，风电接纳能力受限，需要考虑源网协调，决策新建风电场装机容量。主要研究内容包括：（1）节点风电全边际价值研究，包括风电对能耗、排放、备用、线路潮流及系统网损的影响；（2）风电接纳水平优化研究：利用风电并网前后负荷节点电价的变化以及潮流追踪的思想，获得不同并网风电场在每个负荷节点上的具体价值体现，甄别对风电接纳水平有关键影响的负荷节点，以全网各个风电场价值之和最大或电力市场运行成本最低为优化目标，实现对单个并网节点风电场接纳水平的优化；（3）风电波动成本分摊方法研究：提出基于波形相似性理论的风电波动成本分摊方法，用波形相似性方法度量风电场实际出力曲线和等效出力曲线的波动整体性差异，兼顾风电场装机容量的影响；（4）考虑风电波动性成本和风电场效益的装机容量优化：将风电并网不确定性成本引入风电场装机容量规划，以风电场发电社会效益净现值最大化为优化目标，建立风电场装机容量机会约束规划模型，初步得到风电场装机容量的优化解，进一步引入基于D-U空间的混合多属性决策方法，确定最优的风电场装机容量结果；（5）考虑接纳水平的海上风电场装机容量优化：为适应高海上风电渗透率发展趋势及电力市场化改革进程，提出一种分层优化方法联合决策海上风电场多阶段装机容量规划方法,上层模型以装机容量等值年利润最大为目标决策海上风电场装机容量及布局；下层模型以电力市场运行成本最优为目标，优化模型外层采用量子粒子群算法求解，内层则为线性规划，采用Cplex求解。. 通过研究， 课题建立了并网点风电价值及边际价值数学模型，实现了对影响风电并网价值关键负荷节点的识别，得到并网点未来年风电动态接纳水平曲线，完成了风电场装机容量决策模型的创建及求解，既能避免大量的弃风电量和风电不足电量，又能兼顾风电场发电社会效益以及投资者收益。