基于恢复力的资源型城市人地耦合系统可持续性评价模型

The concept of resilience rooted from the principle of vulnerability and stability analysis of coupled human-environmental system, and have intensively related with the concept of system sustainable development, had become a new field of geography, ecology and social science. Facing with the increasing complexity on interaction of human and earth, and growing natural and anthropogenic disturbances, exploring system sustainability are more and more inclined to view the system as a coupled system, and more attention were paid to the system mechanism on response, adaption and resilience to changes. Thus we proposed a sustainability evaluation model through resilience lens. Firstly, a system tempo-spatial integrated model were built by coupling a system dynamic model with stock-flow and an ecological landscape model on patches, to depict the complex interaction of multiple social-economical-ecological elements; secondly, system dynamic characteristics were depicted and evaluated by system resilience, which indicated by adaptability and variability. Third, scenarios were built upon sensitivity analysis of key system indicators; proposed a comprehensive framework of resilience evaluation; also discussed the influence of multiple adaptive managements by scenario simulation, and presented a reliable and convincing working strategy for building regional sustainability. Then applied the model in Ordos City in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case, try to propose practical supports for a sustainable development of resource based cities.

可持续性发展是一项系统工程，有效的、面向未来情景的区域可持续性评价是指导区域管理实践的有力工具。区域发展过程中面临着自然和社会干扰多样化、要素变化不确定性增加和交互关系复杂化等问题，而当前的可持续性评价框架，缺乏对干扰的尺度及效应、要素之间反馈、系统的多平衡态转变、发展情景等的有效考量。为此，本研究提出了基于恢复力视角的可持续性评价模型，从分析和模拟系统要素耦合交互作用出发，建立评价系统自组织、自适应和修复能力的可持续性评价框架。研究通过耦合时空要素动态模型，运用手机信令数据对社会经济单元细化，构建系统动力学模型，并在Stella+R环境中实现时空耦合，绘制系统状态变化曲线，采用数学模型提炼系统恢复力指数。最后，模拟多种区域发展与管理情景，识别系统演化的阈值，评价恢复力，识别最佳发展模式，并以鄂尔多斯市为例进行模型方法的检验，试图为资源枯竭型型城市的可持续发展决策提供依据。

面向日益复杂多样的人类互动与地表环境的相互作用，本项目试图通过定量分析系统多要素的复杂反馈机制，构建系统恢复力的模型，实现对系统的可持续发展。围绕区域可持续发展的现实需求，本课题围绕预定目标，提出了资源型城市人地耦合系统恢复力综合研究框架，并取得以下重要进展。1）对人地耦合系统的恢复力的理论和研究进展进行了文献计量学综述，识别当前研究终点和研究态势，发现未来的研究热点方向。2）研发了构建适应性情景的政策参数化方法。3）构建系统动力学模型，模拟以资源型城市为代表的区域可持续发展动态。4）模型模拟结果揭示了资源型城市社会经济发展的规律性，即其发展过程具有阶段性特征，随着资源的开采，以人口密度为指示指标，煤炭资源型城市社会经济发展存在一般性规律，即依次经历自然增长、加速增长、波动性稳定增长、衰退和再平衡等发展阶段；同时，不同调控政策在系统发展的不同阶段起主导作用。5）据此，研究提出了“先动态识别阶段，后划定主导政策”的资源型城市转型管理策略。根据研究区社会经济现状判断，鄂尔多斯市正处于加速增长到波动稳定的过渡阶段，最优转型策略是发展节水型工业，并依据承载力来调控城镇人口规模，引导区域的转型与可持续发展。研究为区域发展问题诊断和制定相应政策提供科学了参考。