基于效率和恢复力平衡的川西山区可持续性评价研究

Sustainability assessment is an important content of the sustainable development research .In this study, a new method of systems ecology is introduced to evaluate sustainability of economic system. The method's main point is that system's long-term sustainability is decided by the tradeoff between efficiency and resilience. Efficiency and resilience are complementary attributes. They are both important for system's sustainable development. Systems with too little efficiency will not maintain their integrity while systems with too little resilience will not be able to meet the exigencies of novel disturbances. A System is sustainable only when efficiency and resilience are balanced. The method provides a new perspective for studying economic system's sustainable development. It is used to analyze sustainable development quantitatively for economic system the first time..Real economic system networks are constructed and random networks are simulated. According to the efficiency and resilience of each network and the attributes of economic system, a window of vitality is delimited. In that window, systems are sustainable; however, the degree of sustainability is different. Li county, Hongyuan county and Jiuzhaigou county are selected as case studies for analyzing economic system's sustainable development. I-O tables between the year of 1997 and 2010 are constructed and converted into flow networks. Then, the value of sustainability index (F) is calculated and its position in the window is ascertained. .Resources scarcity is a big problem for economic development especially with population growth and the consciousness of protecting ecosystems. How to make economic system more sustainable with given resources is very important. Sensitivity analysis on sustainability index (F) with respect to each individual component process quantifies the value of that link at the margin, i.e., how much each unit of that process contributes toward moving the system toward its most sustainable configuration. The analysis provides the scheme to assign resources which could make economic system more sustainable.It is helpful for the tradeoff between ecological procection and economic system's sustainable development.

可持续性评价是可持续发展研究的一项重要内容，它可以为政府的发展决策提供重要的科学依据。本项目以川西山区典型县域理县、红原县及九寨沟县为研究区，引入基于效率和恢复力平衡关系确定的系统可持续性指标F，评价经济系统的可持续性。通过比较真实经济系统及随机模拟系统效率和恢复力的分布状态及经济系统网络本身的固有特性，界定经济系统可持续发展的阈值范围及最佳可持续发展状态，为可持续性评价提供参照系。结合可持续性指标值F及参照系，比较分析各县的可持续发展状态和特点。最后，对可持续性指标F进行敏感性分析，明确对经济系统可持续性贡献较大的路径，以此作为资源分配标准，提出资源约束条件下经济系统的可持续发展对策。本项目拓展了经济系统可持续发展研究的理论和方法，对协调山区县域的生态保护与经济可持续发展具有积极意义。

可持续性评价是可持续发展研究的重要内容，它可以为政府的发展决策提供重要的科学依据。项目从系统演化的视角出发，基于系统效率和恢复力的平衡关系分析了经济系统可持续发展的阈值范围，评价了川西山区典型县域理县、红原县和九寨沟县的可持续性，并通过敏感性分析得出了促进各县域可持续发展的途径。研究结果表明：（1）经济系统网络作用数的范围为1-4.5且链接数的范围为1-15时，系统是可持续的；作用数为2.75且链接数为8时，系统处于最优可持续发展状态；（2）在2000-2010年间，理县经济系统的可持续性逐步增加，九寨沟县和红原县经济系统的可持续性波动变化，且可持续性都是2007年增加后在2010年降低，这可能是2008年汶川大地震影响了当地经济发展。（3）加强理县的工业流出、九寨沟县工业对其他服务业的投入以及红原县农业的流出等有助于促进各县经济系统的可持续发展。