区域旅游业碳排放的测度、影响因素与碳减排效应研究——以江苏省为例

In the context of climate change, low-carbon tourism pattern is the only way for sustainable development of tourism in all nations. The task of energy saving and emission reduction in tourism industry on national strategic level requires regional decomposition. Therefore, it is an important scientific issue to measure the carbon dioxide emissions of regional tourism, to decompose the driving factors and to assess the effects of carbon dioxide emissions reduction, with the purpose of achieving energy saving and emission reduction and low-carbon transition for tourism industry. The empirical study will be conducted in Jiangsu Province which is both a major energy consumption and tourism province. The project aims to establish a systematic framework integrating elements, processes and paths by comprehensively applying the relevant theories of tourism geography, ecological economics, input-output economics, evolutionary economics, etc., with the base of measuring carbon dioxide emissions, the pillar of decomposing factors for carbon dioxide emissions, and the extending of effect evaluation for low-carbon tourism. By virtue of the multiple methods including the mathematical modeling, GIS techniques, structural equation model, etc., the project breaks through the limitation of existing research techniques and methods of low-carbon tourism, expands the views of measurement and improves the accuracy of measurement, extracts the new characters of the carbon dioxide emissions, intensively reveals the influence of technical and institutional elements on the carbon dioxide emissions, deepens the cognition of regulation paths towards low-carbon tourism. Consequently, the project could instill new meanings for sustainable development of tourism, enrich the theoretical connotation and methodology of tourism geography and cultural geography, and have guiding significance and application value to promote the construction of tourist industrial ecology civilization.

发展低碳旅游是在气候变化背景下各国旅游可持续发展的必由之路，而国家战略层面上的旅游业节能减排任务需要地方场域分解。在对区域旅游业碳排放进行测度的基础上，分析其影响因素，并评价调控的碳减排效应，是旅游业实现节能减排目标和低碳转型亟待研究的课题。选择均为能源消费大省和旅游强省的江苏省为案例地，以旅游业碳排放测度为基础，以影响因素分解为支柱，以碳减排效应评价为延伸，综合运用旅游地理学、生态经济学、投入产出经济学、演化经济学等理论，确立要素、过程与路径的系统分析框架。借助数学建模、GIS技术、结构方程模型等多种技术与方法，突破已有研究方法的局限，拓展测度的视角和提高测度的精准性，提炼碳排放的新特征，揭示技术性、制度性因素对碳排放的影响作用，深化对低碳化调控路径的再认识，为旅游可持续发展赋予时代内涵，丰富旅游地理和文化地理的理论内涵和方法体系，并对旅游业生态文明的建设具有重要的指导意义和应用价值。

剖析游客对宏观大气环境的感知，测度旅游业的碳排放，并分析其节能减排措施的效应，是旅游业响应气候变化和实现低碳转型亟待研究的课题。研究基于实地调查数据、统计数据和社交媒体数据，运用数学建模、结构方程模型、机器学习方法等多种技术与方法，探讨了游客对气候、空气质量等大气环境要素的情感分析，测度了旅游业的直接碳排放和间接碳排放，从供需两侧探讨了旅游业低碳化的调控对策。主要研究成果包括：采用网络爬虫技术获取新浪微博发布的关于气候、空气质量等主题的网络文本评论，利用ROST CM、Gooseeker和BosonNLP三种工具对文本进行内容分析，并依托ROST EA自带的情感词典方法探讨句子极性比例，通过Python编程调用人工神经网络这一机器学习方法，测算了带有时空标签信息的各评论的情感值。借鉴科学计量软件Citespace等工具发现，旅游业的碳排放测度及节能减排是近十多年旅游研究者重点关注的一个领域。依托投入产出表和旅游终端收入，分析了旅游交通及其余部门分担中国旅游业碳排放总量的责任，并剖析了碳排放总量在直接和间接层面上、在群体上的构成。构建了由低碳旅游感知、低碳旅游消费习惯、低碳旅游环境组成的低碳旅游行为意愿结构方程模型。依托目标导向行为模型理论构建了包括消费欲望、感知行为、新能源汽车属性等在内的自驾游客对新能源汽车消费意愿的结构方程模型。运用扎根理论等方法分析了影响游客选择共享单车出游的因素。以态度-行为-情境理论等为手段，诊断了我国游客对碳标签制度的接受程度，探究了游客感知、游客购买意愿、游客消费价值观等因素对游客低碳行为的影响。从低碳认知、低碳行为等方面探讨了旅游小企业从业人员的低碳素养特征及影响因素。运用条件价值法和Logit模型，研究了旅游地居民对发展低碳旅游的支付意愿。研究为旅游业与大气环境研究带来了中国的数据方法和观点，揭示了旅游业碳排放的新现象、新特征，为旅游业的节能减排提供了科学依据，力求丰富旅游地理和文化地理的理论内涵和方法体系。