基于计算实验的石油供需网络优化与动态调控研究

With the increasing of dependence on foreign oil in China, building an efficient and security oil supply-demand system is a hot issue that should be considered by experts and scholars as well as decision-making departments. Oil supply-demand system, is a complicated system of multi-agent participating in multi-stakeholders and limiting by the complex external environment. Based on the computational experiment methods and the integration of network optimization theory, this project analyzes the theory and methodology of the oil supply-demand network systematically through many methods, such as theoretical modeling，the computer system representation, the positive analysis and strategy research. It presents the influence mechanism of uncertainties on the oil supply-demand system, and it also addresses the theory in alternative oil on interaction network of all alternative energy. An integrated optimization model is established to reveal the evolutional rule of the oil supply-demand network and improving the robustness of the network structure or looking for approaches that can improve its robustness. This project also studies on different situations of network optimal solution while changing the constraints parameters, especially constraints in policy as well as other various scenarios. Combined with empirical analysis, this project presents the interaction between computational experiments' resolution and practices and provides effective recommendations for improving oil supply-demand system in China. Further, this project has positive academic significance and applicative value to promote the application of computational experiment methods and the theory of complex systems in resource management and research in policy.

随着我国石油对外依存度的不断攀升，构建高效、安全的石油供需体系是相关决策部门和专家学者亟待解决的热点问题。石油供需系统是一个多主体的复杂系统，受到多元利益相关主体参与以及复杂外部环境的约束。本项目基于计算实验方法，融合网络优化理论，通过理论建模、计算机系统再现、实证分析和对策研究，系统梳理石油供需网络的理论和方法体系。分析不确定因素对石油供需系统的影响机理，在石油及其替代品相互作用网络的层面上研究石油替代调控理论。建立统一优化网络模型，揭示石油供需网络演化规律，寻找鲁棒性最大的网络结构形式或遭受干扰时提高网络鲁棒性的途径。研究在改变约束条件参数特别是政策约束等多种情景下的网络最优解的变化情况。结合实证分析，实现计算实验结果与实践之间的互动，为完善我国石油供需体系提供切实有效地建议。本项目对促进计算实验方法与复杂系统理论在资源管理和政策研究中的应用具有积极的学术意义和应用价值。

本项目基于复杂系统及复杂网络的新视角，分析了中国石油及其他能源供需现状；预测中国石油需求；构建了评价中国石油进口风险的新的量化方法，量化了中国石油进口风险，并分析了我国石油进口风险对国内各部门成本以及GDP的影响；建立了石油价格波动的时间序列网络，通过网络指标体系的研究，揭示了国际石油价格的内在形式与动态规律，对石油价格的可预测性及相关预警信号的识别进行了分析；建立了一个化石能源贸易多层网络模型,研究了国际能源贸易关系随时间演变的拓扑性质，研究了石油及其替代品的相互作用网络及市场机制；综合考虑可再生能源成本的学习曲线效应以及化石能源成本随时间演化的特性，将投资组合理论应用于中国能源结构的优化，对中国未来的能源结构优化做出了预测；建立了电力竞价二分网络演化模型，设计了合理有效的电力交易市场概率匹配机制，该机制可有效降低市场成交价格，同时增加市场电力贸易量，促进电力交易市场稳定活跃的发展；研究了记忆和从众心理及资源有限下可视性对个体行为的影响。本项目融合计算实验方法、网络优化理论及演化博弈理论，理论、实验及实证相结合，为完善我国石油供需体系提供了切实有效的建议。