产能过剩背景下面向策略消费者的牛鞭效应及协调研究

The industrial structure is facing the contradiction of excess capacity and demand upgrading in the new normal background. We investigate the bullwhip effect on product orders and inventory from the strategic consumer purchasing behavioural perspective. First, we consider the demand function depending on the strategic consumer based on supply chain overcapacity. Assuming that consumer make purchasing decisions in anticipation of product price, overcapacity and utility, the product utility is measured by product quality, brand and experience. We derive analytical expressions for the bullwhip effect and investigate the impact of the overcapacity factor, price sensitivity coefficient and utility coefficient on the bullwhip effect. Second, we consider the impact of consumer returns on the bullwhip effect in e-commerce. The bullwhip effect can be reduced through supply chain coordination and consumer behavior guiding in higher proportion of consumers return scenario in low-end products supply chain. Third, we consider strategic consumer channel selection model in the multi-channel competition environment base on the low-end and high-end product supply chain. We propose an analytical framework that incorporates two parallel supply chains, and we explore their interactions to determine the bullwhip effect. These findings are applicable to the development of managerial strategies by supply chain members that are conducive to promote low-end supply chain upgrading to high-end supply chain.

本项目基于新常态下我国产业结构面临着产能过剩与需求结构升级之间突出矛盾的现实环境，考虑策略消费者购买产品感受和对应的购买行为偏好，分析消费者行为参数对供应链全系统牛鞭效应的影响。首先，构建产能过剩背景下面向策略消费者的需求模型，认为策略消费者的购买决策主要根据产品价格、产能过剩情况以及产品效用（产品质量、品牌和体验等）综合决定，从而推导得到相应的牛鞭效应解析式，分析产能过剩因子、价格敏感系数和产品效用系数等对牛鞭效应的影响。其次，建立电商模式下考虑消费者退货影响的供应链全系统牛鞭效应模型，指导低端产品供应链在消费者高退货比例情景下，通过供应链成员协调和消费者消费行为引导以抑制牛鞭效应。最后，建立低端/高端产品供应链多渠道竞争环境下策略消费者的渠道选择模型，分析平行供应链交互作用和竞争因子对各供应链牛鞭效应的影响，据此设计协调机制和市场手段，推动低端产品供应链向高端产品供应链转型升级。

本项目基于新常态下我国产业结构面临着产能过剩与需求结构升级之间突出矛盾的现实环境，考虑策略消费者购买产品感受和对应的购买行为偏好，分析消费者行为参数对供应链全系统牛鞭效应的影响。首先，构建产能过剩背景下面向策略消费者的需求模型，认为策略消费者的购买决策主要根据产品价格、产能过剩情况以及产品效用（产品质量、品牌和体验等）综合决定，从而推导得到相应的牛鞭效应解析式，分析产能过剩因子、价格敏感系数和产品效用系数等对牛鞭效应的影响。其次，建立电商模式下考虑消费者退货影响的供应链全系统牛鞭效应模型，指导低端产品供应链在消费者高退货比例情景下，通过供应链成员协调和消费者消费行为引导以抑制牛鞭效应。最后，建立低端/高端产品供应链多渠道竞争环境下策略消费者的渠道选择模型，分析平行供应链交互作用和竞争因子对各供应链牛鞭效应的影响，据此设计协调机制和市场手段，推动低端产品供应链向高端产品供应链转型升级。