基于产品可靠性与顾客服务期望的网购供应链延保决策及模式研究

With the rapid development of online retail industry of household appliance and 3C products, the extended warranty (EW) is prized by firms and customers due to its dual characteristic: profitability and reducing losses. However, the existing designs of EW couldn’t have simultaneously considered product reliability and customer expectation of service. That leads to a failure of satisfying the needs of customers at EW and obtaining profits from EW to firms. Therefore, this research aims to narrow these gaps through studying the EW decisions and models of an online shopping supply chain based on product reliability and customer expectation of service. Firstly, this research analyzes the typical operation patterns of EW and the relationships among members in an online shopping supply chain. Secondly, based on the theory of Principal-Agent theory and game theory, this research investigates how EW decisions are made in the three scenarios where manufacture or online store or the third-party offers EW to customers. Finally, the theoretical models are tested and optimized through combining the models and actual data. Meanwhile, the EW decisions and the performance of members in the above three scenarios are compared. Then the optimal EW decisions and service models as well as the respective conditions are proposed based on above results. The research of this project on the one hand helps to enrich the existing research on EW operation and management; on the other hand, it helps online stores and their collaborators to make optimal EW decisions and service models. In addition, this study also plays a positive role in improving the customers’ online shopping experience and increasing the profit of enterprises as well as promoting the practice and innovation of extended warranty.

随着家电/3C产品网络零售业的发展，延保服务因兼具盈利和降低顾客损失的双重属性，越来越受到市场青睐。然而，现有延保服务设计无法兼顾产品可靠性和顾客服务期望等关键因素，导致其既无法满足顾客需求，又不能使企业从中获利。为此，本项目基于产品可靠性与顾客服务期望研究延保决策及模式。首先，分析网购供应链延保服务现有典型运营模式和供应链内各参与者之间的合作方式；其次，运用委托代理和博弈模型，分别研究制造商、网络商店以及第三方延保模式下的延保决策规律；最后，将理论模型与实际数据相结合，检验和优化理论模型，并比较三种模式下延保决策和绩效等方面的差异，以此提出最优延保决策和模式并阐明相应的条件。本项目一方面丰富了网络零售环境下的延保服务管理理论；另一方面有助于网络商店及其合作企业制定最佳延保决策和模式，在改善顾客网购体验、提升企业绩效和促进延保服务实践创新等方面发挥积极作用。

网络零售环境下的家电/3C产品等资产密集型产品竞争的日趋同质化助推了在线零售业及其服务化的快速发展。在此背景下延保因兼具盈利和风险规避的双重属性，越来越受企业和消费市场的青睐。然而，现有延保因其设计难以兼顾产品质量属性和顾客服务期望等关键因素，使得其既无法满足顾客需求，又难以使企业从中盈利。易见，网络环境下产品延保决策面临的关键问题是如何从需求和产品质量属性的双重视角设计在线延保，并理清二者同产品定价、延保决策的内在逻辑关系，最大程度地激发消费者购买意愿、增强企业的市场竞争力和盈利能力，进而实现网购供应链参与企业及供应链系统的可持续发展。本项目以产品质量和消费者服务期望对在线零售的家电/3C产品及其延保需求的影响机理为前提，构建基于产品质量与顾客服务期望的决策模型；并以各参与方的利润最大化为目标，通过数学模型的演绎推导提出各服务模式下的最优延保决策及相应的条件，揭示不同市场环境下产品质量和顾客服务期望对产品定价与延保策略的影响规律。具体而言，本项目首先采用消费者行为理论（效用理论）刻画网购供应链不同延保模式下的消费者行为特征，并基于零部件可靠性刻画产品整体质量和构建产品和延保的需求函数；随后，基于产品和延保的质量属性和消费者行为构建延保决策基础模型，并结合企业实践厘清了不同延保模式下网购供应链各参与企业间的决策过程及互动规律；然后，分析了不同延保模式下产品质量和消费者服务期望波动对供应链各参与方的决策和系统均衡的影响规律并阐明了相应的条件；接着，分析了网购供应链渠道结构差异化情景下的系统延保策略，比较并揭示了不同契约结构下的延保决策规律；最后，从销售模式视角研究了产品-延保捆绑销售策略以及相应的条件，并结合上述理论研究从企业实践角度给出了相应管理建议。本项目研究对丰富服务供应链管理尤其是电子商务环境下的延保服务管理领域的理论体系具有积极的影响。