典型沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力及其影响机制研究

Social-ecological system resilience in desertification reversal area mainly impacts regional ecological safety and sustainable development of society and economy, which is related to the process and effect of national desertification control. However, there is not enough attention for desertification reversal area and social-ecosystem resilience. Then, studying on social-ecological system resilience and influencing mechanism in typical desertification reversal areas has important theoretical and practical significance for desertification control and region sustainable development. This project takes Yanchi County, which is a typical desertification reversal area, as research area, to construct valuation index system and evaluation model based on social-ecosystem resilience in desertification reversal area, which measuring the resilience of social-ecosystem in desertification reversal are. This project also explores the factors affecting the resilience of social-ecosystem in desertification reversal areas and influencing mechanisms from aspects of natural environment, social and economic background. The social-ecosystem resilience model in desertification reversal area is optimized by adjusting the external disturbance factors and internal factors affecting the system structural change, to propose optimum management model and policy suggestions for improving the social-ecosystem resilience in desertification reversal. The project will enrich and expand the progress of social-ecosystem theory, and will provide scientific support and decision support for sustainable development of social-ecological system resilience in desertification reversal areas.

沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统的恢复力是区域生态安全和社会经济可持续发展的关键，关系到国家沙漠化治理的进程和效果。但目前对沙漠化逆转区及其系统恢复力方面尚未有足够的关注，开展沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力及其影响机制研究对沙漠化治理和区域可持续发展具有重要理论和现实意义。基于此，项目以典型沙漠化逆转区——宁夏盐池县为研究区，构建沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系和评价模型，测度沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统的恢复力；从自然环境和社会经济背景方面，探索影响沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制；通过调整系统外部干扰因子和影响结构变化的内部因子的参数，优化系统恢复力模型，提出沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力的优化管理模式和政策建议。项目有利于丰富和拓展社会-生态系统理论，为促进沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统可持续发展提供科学依据和决策支持。

随着国家对沙漠逆转区的一些列生态恢复政策的启动，许多生态区域的生态安全和社会经济可持续发展已取得阶段性的成果。探讨沙漠逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力及其影响机制研究对沙漠化治理和区域可持续发展仍具有重要理论和现实意义。本项目以典型沙漠化逆转区——宁夏盐池县为研究区，将盐池县社会经济统计数据和问卷调查相结合，构建沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系和评价模型，定量化沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统的恢复力。并探索出了影响沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制，最终调整系统内外部干扰因子参数优化模型，提出沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力的优化管理模式和政策建议。研究表明：（1）在现有的全年全区域禁牧政策下，未来草场覆盖度、青草数量等生态指标呈现上升趋势，最终稳定在良好的水平，沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力保持稳定。（2）农户的环境敏感度和对禁牧补偿机制的满意度可有效缓解农户的放牧行为，且农户对草原的依赖度越高，越容易放牧；（3）农户的草原依赖度与环境敏感度、草原依赖度与补偿机制满意度对放牧行为有显著的交互效应；（4）家庭生计多样性和青壮年劳动力数量对草原依赖度和放牧行为之间有显著的调节效应。（5）生计资本对农户放牧行为有显著正向影响，且农户对未来生态环境的焦虑会加剧其放牧行为。（6）农户对未来生态补偿政策的预测课正向调节金融资本、自然资本和物质资本与农户放牧行为的关系，农户对未来生态环境的预测可正向调节金融资本与农户放牧行为的关系，农户对未来生态环境预测正向调节生态焦虑与农户放牧行为之间关系。（7）通过调整休牧时间可以发现，在春秋冬季休牧夏季开牧时，沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力最强，通过调整禁牧面积可以发现，当维持现有政策，禁牧比例为100%时，沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统恢复力最强。