海产品中副溶血性弧菌的随机模型构建

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the leading cause of food-borne illness caused by pathogen in China, the risk of which is mainly from seafood. Risk assessment is internationally recognized as a necessary support to the development of effective measures for supervision and administration of food safety and food safety standard. The variability of growth kinetic parameters of different Vibrio parahaemolyticus strains is one of the key point which will affect the accuracy of risk assessment, therefore, it’s urgent to be studied further and in-depth. The present study aims to study the changing principle of growth kinetic parameters of different Vibrio parahaemolyticus strains under various environment conditions, the characteristic parameters which reflects the strains variability will be extracted accurately, then being integrated to construct stochastic model. By comparing the predicted value by the stochastic model and the observed value derived from the dynamic changes of growth kinetics of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in seafood from farm to table, the stochastic model will be further optimized and improved to achieve precise evaluation of variability in the risk assessment. The present study will provide a theoretical basis and technical support for accurate assessment of food-borne disease burden caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in seafood and development of more scientific and effective process control measures for seafood safety guarantee.

副溶血性弧菌是引起我国细菌性食物中毒的首要食源性致病菌，其风险主要来源于海产品。风险评估是国际上公认的用于制定有效的食品安全监管措施和限量标准的必要手段。影响海产品中副溶血性弧菌风险评估准确性的关键因素之一是不同副溶血性弧菌菌株的生长动力学特征参数的变异性，迫切需要开展深入的研究。本项目旨在探究不同副溶血性弧菌菌株在不同环境条件下的生长动力学特征参数的变化规律，准确提取能体现菌株生长变异性的特征参数，并构建随机模型。通过对比分析随机模型的预测结果与实际海产品中副溶血性弧菌从养殖场到餐桌全过程中的生长动态变化情况的实测结果，进一步优化和完善随机模型，提高其对变异性评价的精准度。为准确评估海产品中副溶血性弧菌引起的食源性疾病负担和更科学有效地制定保障海产品质量安全的过程监管措施提供理论基础和技术支持。

副溶血性弧菌是引起我国细菌性食物中毒的首要食源性致病菌，其风险主要来源于海产品。风险评估是国际上公认的用于制定有效的食品安全监管措施和限量标准的必要手段。影响海产品中副溶血性弧菌风险评估准确性的关键因素之一是不同副溶血性弧菌菌株的生长动力学特征参数的变异性，迫切需要开展深入的研究。在本项目中，通过建模实验，研究了副溶血性弧菌环境分离株和临床分离株的生长动力学特征参数。52株不同来源副溶血性弧菌的生长参数分析结果显示，在25 °C和3%NaCL TSB 培养条件下，不同菌株之间的生长参数存在显著差异(P<0.05)，其μmax的CV值为4.6%；但是生长参数差异与菌株分离来源、致病基因之间无明显相关性。我们将研究结果进一步应用于上海市鱼类水产品的风险评估工作。评估结果显示每人每年因摄入被致病性副溶血性弧菌污染的鱼致病概率均值为1.08×10e-7。