华北平原小麦玉米两熟生产气候风险评估与决策支持研究

Winter wheat and summer corn is the major crop in North China Plain. The high climate variability among years makes crop production high risk in the region. Based on the validation and parameter adjustment for the crop model WhtMod and APSIM, taking 17 representative sites of the region, the long-term yield of wheat and maize was simulated by using historical climate data(30～45 years). The key factors of yield risk were analyzed and the indices of year patterns were determined. The climatic risk to crop production was assessed. Distribution in space-time of yield risk for winter wheat production was analyzed and expressed by ArcGIS. The response climatic management and decision support for winter wheat production in this region was studied. The "System of Evaluation Models for Winter Production in North China Plain" was developed. The "Decision Support System for the Management of Climatic risk of Wheat and Maize Production" was established. Information obtained by climatic risk assessment can be valuable when used for tactical decision-making, and can be used to make response management of wheat production. This study is benefit for the analysis of resources utility and evaluation of risk for the crop production system in North China Plain. It has significant meaning and application values in the management of water recourse, crop production of wheat and maize, in reducing losses of various disasters, and in supporting the sustainable development of crop production in the region.

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