核事故放射性物质扩散风险评估与应急决策支持研究

Nuclear power is important to China's energy development strategy and there is no doubt that high-safety guarantee is the prerequisite of the nuclear power development. The nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) on 11 March 2011 released large quantities of radioactive materials which caused huge loss of lives and extensive impacts on the surrounding environment as well as human health. Therefore, in the fields of public safety and emergency management, the research on the radiological risk assessment and emergency decision support based on the atmospheric dispersion model is definitely necessary and urgent. In this project，considering the complex meteorological and topographical conditions, the atmospheric dispersion model of radioactive materials under the circumstance of nuclear accidents will be researched. At the same time, the laws of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials will also be studied. Moreover, the meso-scale radiation dose calculation module will be built and embedded into the atmospheric dispersion model and the small-scale external and internal dose calculation methods will be developed. Furthermore, combined with the radiation dose calculation model, the radiological risk assessment methods will be established. Finally, based on the atmospheric dispersion model and the results of risk assessment, the emergency decision support techniques and methods including evacuation and emergency resource scheduling will be studied. The research results can be applied to the risk assessment and the emergency decision support under the circumstance of nuclear accidents. The atmospheric dispersion model as well as the risk assessment and emergency decision support methods can be applied to the nuclear emergency platform and the national emergency platform system.

核电是我国能源战略中的重要组成部分，核电安全是核电发展的前提。福岛核事故使人们再一次认识到核事故下放射性物质泄漏造成的巨大的负面影响。对放射性物质的大气扩散风险评估和应急决策支持成为目前公共安全与应急管理领域急需研究的课题。本项目将研究核事故下，综合考虑复杂气象、地形条件，以及放射性核素自身特征的放射性物质大气扩散模型和规律；在扩散模型中开发并嵌入中尺度放射性核素辐射剂量计算模块，发展小尺度放射性核素外照射、内照射辐射剂量计算方法，并结合放射性物质辐射剂量计算模型研究放射性物质的公众健康风险评估方法；研究基于模型计算和风险评估结果进行人员疏散避难和应急资源调度等的应急决策支持技术和方法。研究成果可以应用于核事故条件下的公众健康风险评估和应急决策支持。建立的放射性物质大气扩散模型以及风险评估和应急决策支持方法可进一步应用于核应急平台及国家应急平台体系。

核电是我国能源战略中的重要组成部分，核电安全是核电发展的前提。福岛核事故使人们再一次认识到核事故下放射性物质泄漏造成的巨大的负面影响。对放射性物质的大气及海洋扩散风险评估和应急决策支持成为目前公共安全与应急管理领域急需研究的课题。本项目将研究核事故下，综合考虑复杂气象、地形条件，以及放射性核素自身特征的放射性物质大气扩散模型、海洋扩散模型和规律；在扩散模型中开发并嵌入中尺度放射性核素辐射剂量计算模块，发展小尺度放射性核素外照射、内照射辐射剂量计算方法，并结合放射性物质辐射剂量计算模型研究放射性物质的公众健康风险评估方法。研究成果可以应用于核事故条件下的公众健康风险评估和应急决策支持。建立的放射性物质大气扩散模型以及风险评估和应急决策支持方法可进一步应用于核应急平台及国家应急平台体系。