水污染风险演变机理及弹复导向的治理机制研究

The objective of this project is to reveal the evolving dynamics of generation, transformation and derivation of various risks in water pollution development process and build resilience oriented governance mechanisms. This project will use data mining and survey, design code system, realize transformation from qualitative data to quantitative data, perform multiple case analyses, summarize evolving impetus of risks and identify boost factors, propose a series of assumptions and do empirical research; build institutional incentive theory, institutional compatibility model and causal chain model on risk generation under new institutional perspective; analyze dynamics on transformation and derivation of water pollution risks, explain the shackle mechanism of ineffective governance on water pollution; build dynamic structure map for resilience governance, propose resilience oriented governance mechanism design, apply AnyLogic simulation and role simulation based on scenarios building for inspection and test, and make further adjustments based on pratice. The project will use new insights to implement a systematical exploration on evolving dynamics and governance mechanism of water pollution risks. It can break through the limitation of dominant research using technical systems perspective in this field, expand the scope and boundary of risk research on water pollution, enhance the ability of theory in analysis, explanation and foresight, and has theoretical significance and applicable value.

本研究目的在于揭示水污染发展过程中各类风险的演变机理及构建弹复导向的治理机制。在资料挖掘和调研基础上，设计定性资料向定量数据转换的编码体系并进行多案例融合分析，识别风险演变动因及助推因素，提出系列假设并实证检验；构建我国水污染风险生成的制度诱因理论、制度相容性模型及风险生成因果链模型，为我国水污染风险生成提供新的解释；解析水污染风险转变与衍生机理，揭示水污染难于有效治理的桎梏原理，以识别当前治理弊端及治理革新的突破点；构建弹复治理的动力结构图谱，提出弹复导向的治理机制设计原则，并结合我国当前水污染治理实践进行进一步的调整和修正。在新的视域下将演变机理与治理机制融汇贯通，可以突破该领域占主流地位的以技术系统视角进行研究的局限性，拓展水污染风险研究的边界，提升理论的分析解释能力和预见能力，具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。

基于文献分析、案例分析和调研，进行了水污染风险演变过程中隐性信息挖掘及利用、水污染风险演变机理分析及模型构建、弹复导向的水污染风险治理机制分析等内容的研究。识别了水污染风险生成的制度诱因，构建了因果关系图谱，提出了水污染风险生成逻辑模型；揭示了水污染风险演变机理，构建了水污染风险演变机理的若干理论模型；揭示了水污染久治不愈的深层次缘由，构建了弹复治理的动力结构图谱，分析了弹复导向的治理机制。在更深的层次上探索了污染背后的环境责任问题，将制度理论的发展与环境策略研究相结合，为政府环境治理和企业环境行为分析提供了洞察力，有利于对政府环境规制与企业环境策略的关系形成系统的思考。部分研究成果以学术论文形式发表于国际知名学术期刊，以项目负责人作为第一或通讯作者并以本项目为第一标注的SCI或SSCI文章5篇，其中3篇文章的刊载期刊位于Thomson Reuters的JCR一区。