基于4D航迹运行概念的大型机场场面活动冲突控制研究

Surface movement conflict control system for large airport is investigated within the concept of 4-dimensional (4D) trajectory-based operations, which is composed of multi-target tracking, surface 4D trajectory prediction, conflict control and validated simulation platform implementation. With the prior information on surface control rules and scheduling plans, the adaptive motion model set is designed, and a variable structure interacting multiple model tracking algorithm for multiple targets based on the convolution particle filter is proposed, achieving real-time target tracking against clutter background. Surface target maneuvering intent is modeled considering speed and heading adjustment. A two-stage intent-based probabilistic 4D trajectory prediction algorithm is provided, which can rolling predict target surface trajectories under uncertainty. Controlled hybrid Petri net is used to model surface operation process and the surface movement conflict judgment is transformed into probability integral of the predicted trajectory on the mapping protection zone, and then the hybrid control theory is introduced to human-machine cooperated decision-making for conflict control command. Human-in-the-loop distributed simulation platform for surface movement conflict control theory validation is developed by applying micro-simulation technology, which is contributed to verify and promote the related algorithm performance. The research of this project will provide necessary theory foundation for the development of next generation surface control system with own independent intellectual property.

以大型机场场面活动冲突控制系统为对象，研究其在基于4D航迹运行概念下所涉及的多目标状态跟踪、场面4D航迹预测、冲突控制、及仿真验证平台研发。首先，集成场面管制规则和调度计划先验信息设计自适应活动模型集，提出基于卷积粒子滤波的变结构交互式多模型多目标状态跟踪算法，实现杂波环境中多机动目标实时状态跟踪。其次，从速度和航向调整两方面建模目标机动意图，并提出基于意图的场面目标两阶段概率型4D航迹预测算法，实现不确定条件下场面目标航迹的滚动预测。再次，采用受控混杂Petri网建模场面运行过程，将活动冲突判别建模为目标在投影保护区内基于预测航迹的概率积分，并基于混杂控制理论实现冲突控制指令的人机协同决策。最后，研发人在环路的分布式场面活动冲突控制理论验证平台，采用场面微观仿真技术验证冲突控制算法性能。本课题可为开发具有自主知识产权的新一代场面管制自动化系统提供必要的理论基础。

本项目基于4D航迹运行概念，研究大型机场场面活动冲突控制系统所涉及的多目标状态跟踪、场面4D航迹预测、冲突控制、以及验证仿真平台研发。主要成果如下： .(1)目标状态跟踪方面。考虑跑滑系统结构约束，给出了单航空器地面滑行目标跟踪变结构多模型算法；将传统场面监视雷达数据和视频监视数据结合，实现了基于多数据源的多航空器滑行状态跟踪；给出了基于概率修正的场面运动航空器跟踪算法，完成了对航空器滑行跟踪算法的优化设计。(2)4D航迹预测方面。给出了航空器4D航迹预测的可行域建模方法，设计了面向航迹预测的航空器场面4D航迹确定型和概率型概念模型，可支持开展4D航迹预测，并提出了航空器地面滑行路由指派方法，能减少航班平均滑行时间和机位推出延误。(3)场面冲突控制方面。给出了场面活动冲突的集中控制和分散控制协同方法，并设计了考虑发动机喷流影响的航空器滑行道交叉口冲突概率估计模型；提出了一种基于受控着色Petri网的机坪运行模型建模方法；给出了基于递阶单亲遗传算法的机坪地面保障车辆指挥集中式调度方法。(4)验证仿真平台方面。采用机场运行微观仿真技术开发了机场场面运行冲突控制仿真平台，可支持开展航空器地面滑行冲突控制算法验证。项目研究成果可为开发具有自主知识产权的新一代场面管制自动化系统提供必要的理论支持。