长江经济带城市韧性评估、机制及其规划响应研究

As one of the three key areas of new-type urbanization in China, the city agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Zone are confronted with new challenges and opportunities. Thanks to the concept of resilient city, a new thought has been provided for its development. How to recognize, evaluate and improve the urban resilience has become a frontier scientific proposition in urban and rural planning. In this study, a systematic research on the status evaluation, the dynamic mechanism and the planning response was conducted, via synthesizing the theories from urban and rural planning, as well as relevant fields, with the urban resilience in the Yangtze River Economic Zone taken as the researching object, which mainly includes three aspects: (1)The urban resilience level and the urban resilience space were evaluated comprehensively, based upon which the characteristics and problems thereof were concluded, via the establishment of “cost-capacity-energy efficiency” model, from the perspective of “economy-society-engineering-ecology” the multi-field and “city monomer-urban system” the dual-space; (2)The internal and the external mechanism of urban resilience were explored from the aspect of the interaction and feedback mechanism of main factors and the functional mechanism of spatial agglomeration, matching, and flowing among cities, based upon the analysis technics such as statistics, GIS, ESDA, and spatial networks; (3)To improve urban resilience, such points during urban and regional planning like objective formulation, content preparation, and strategy guidance were discussed. If completed, the study may contribute actively to the establishment of the theoretical system of urban resilience and the planning of resilience improvement in the Yangtze Economic Zone.

作为我国新型城镇化战略的三大重点区域之一，长江经济带的城市面临着新的机遇与挑战，城市韧性理念为其发展转型提供了新思路。如何认识、评估与提升城市韧性成为城乡规划学的前沿科学命题。本课题以长江经济带的城市韧性为对象，综合城乡规划学及相关学科理论，对其现状评估、动力机制和规划响应进行系统研究，主要包括：（1）通过建立“成本-能力-能效”模型，从经济、社会、工程、生态多领域和“城市单体-城市体系”双重空间视角对城市韧性水平和城市韧性空间进行综合评估，并归纳其特征与问题；（2）基于统计学、GIS、ESDA、空间网络等分析技术，从主控要素及其交互和城市间空间集聚、匹配、流动的相互作用两方面探索城市韧性的内部与外部机制；（3）为提升城市韧性，对城市规划和区域规划的目标制定、内容编制、策略引导和主体实施等进行探讨。课题可望对城市韧性理论体系构建与长江经济带城市韧性提升的规划应对作出积极贡献。

作为我国新型城镇化战略的三大重点区域之一，长江经济带的城市面临着新的机遇与挑战，城市韧性理念为其发展转型提供了新思路。以长江经济带为研究对象，通过建立“成本-能力-能效”模型，从经济、社会、工程、生态多领域和“城市单体-城市体系”双重空间视角对城市韧性水平和城市韧性空间进行综合评估，并归纳其特征与问题；在此基础上探究韧性的内部机制，从投入和产出两个视角揭示了影响韧性能力的主控要素和交互关系；进一步地，聚焦城市与城市间的联系与关系探讨韧性的外部机制。最后，提出城市韧性的优化策略。. 研究结果表明，在水平上，韧性成本、能效指数呈现出较为明显的层级性，而能力指数的分野不大。在空间上，韧性成本和韧性能力随城市规模的扩张而逐渐增加，而韧性效率逐渐衰减；“成本-能力-能效”的聚类具有明显的上中下游区际差异性，上游地区表现为“低耗低能高效”，中游地区“低耗低能中效”，下游地区为“高耗高能低效”；从空间关联来看，韧性成本、能力和能效均存在空间相互与依赖，兼有核心城市的辐射带动与一般城市的同质带动，其中以韧性能力的空间带动效应最为突出。从内部机制来看，全社会用电量、建成区面积和科技支出是影响城市韧性能力的主要成本因素，不同韧性模式的城市具有差异化的主控因素。经济-社会-工程-生态韧性的耦合协调度多数处于中度失调的状态，但相互影响程度呈现出逐渐增强的趋势。在外部机制来看，层级性、匹配性、传输性和集聚性是评估城市网络结构的有效途径，网络级联失效和网络负面传播与异质的度值分布、高度的局部聚类和较短的路径长度有关。基于影响机制的研究结果提出相应的韧性优化策略，以实现在常态情境下促进城市与网络高效发展，中断情境下提升城市应对风险的抵御力，消极传播下增强网络结构平疫切换能力。