异质性消费者的界定、行为度量及供需结构有效匹配研究

This project constructs a theoretical analysis framework of heterogeneous consumers’ behavior taking into full consideration of China’s economic characteristics such as the existence of the contradiction between supply and demand structures and the insufficiency of endogenous economic growth impetus in the present stage, combining with the model of precautionary saving, liquidity constraint and double-assets consumption decision. Furthermore, from the perspective of micro households and macro-control, this project analyzes the behavior characteristics, generation mechanism, evolution trend and the influence factors of heterogeneous consumers, and also identifies and comes up with a definition of heterogeneous consumers. This project will make a thorough inquiry to the interaction mechanism between heterogeneous consumers’ behavior and macro factors using modified RCK model, quasi natural experiment method. The macro factors include the public goods supply, financial supply, and infrastructure supply and consumption environment under the background of the “new normal”. Then this project provide further analysis of the interaction between supply-side structural reform and residents’ heterogeneous consumption demand, and the evolution path of effective matching, optimization and adjustment of supply and demand structures. The research findings provide a micro basis for the scientific decision-making in government’s macroeconomic management. With the improvement of public goods supply, infrastructure, consumption environment and social security system, this project realizes the dynamic optimization of the proportion of heterogeneous consumers and the effective matching of supply and demand structures, and further promotes the policy efficiency of supply-side structural reform and releases the consumption potential of urban and rural residents in China, which will enhance the endogenous economic growth impetus, and achieve a healthy and stable development under the “new normal”.

课题基于供需结构矛盾与经济增长内生动力不足的事实，结合预防性储蓄、流动性约束、双资产消费决策等模型，构建一个充分考虑中国经济特征的异质性消费者行为理论分析框架，并基于微观家庭和宏观调控视角，识别并界定异质性消费者，研究分析现阶段异质性消费者的行为特征、产生机理、未来演变趋势及其影响因素，使用改进的RCK模型、准自然实验等方法探究经济新常态下异质性消费者行为与公共物品、金融、基础设施供给与消费环境等宏观因素的相互作用机制，进而分析供给与异质性消费者需求的相互作用渠道以及供需结构有效匹配与优化调整的演变路径。可为宏观经济管理的科学决策提供理论依据，并通过公共品与基础设施的完善、消费环境的改善、社会保障政策的健全等措施实现异质性消费者比例的动态优化以及供需结构的有效匹配，提升供给侧结构性改革的政策效率，有效促进我国居民消费潜力的释放，增强我国经济增长的内生动力，实现新常态下经济健康平稳发展。

在出口和投资增速回落、新冠疫情冲击及居民消费需求异质性多元化的背景下，消费对经济增长的作用日益凸显。消费潜力的进一步释放与消费升级需要供给端及消费环境的保障与支撑。基于此，本课题以异质性消费者的界定与度量为研究对象和切入点，以实现供需高质量有效匹配为目标，展开了一系列研究。首先，依据异质性禀赋和异质性特征两个角度界定异质性消费者，并借助宏微观数据，从家庭收入资产、习惯形成、人口结构等方面分析异质性消费者的行为特征。其次，从公共制度、金融供给和市场环境等角度，研究供给侧结构性改革对异质性消费者行为的作用机制。最后，着眼于供给端和需求端，即企业行为和消费者最优购买决策两方面，探索规避供需失衡风险的方式和改善供需匹配的路径。并取得了以下重要结果：第一，推进了不同方向收入变化下边际消费倾向的非对称反应以及家庭资产对消费平滑的影响。流动性约束的存在导致不同程度、不同方向的收入变化下的消费行为产生了异质性的非对称反应。第二，丰富了习惯形成，人口结构，信息获取等因素对消费影响的研究。多元不确定性的增加使得居民消费行为的习惯形成特征格外明显，消费行为愈加谨慎。人口老龄化对居民消费倾向的影响具有显著的异质性、非线性特征。信息滞后特征与信息更新成本的高低也带来了消费者的异质性分化。第三，推进了公共制度和金融环境对消费的影响研究。转换以LPR为基础的贷款定价方式、提高城职保的养老替代率和覆盖率、养老保险制度并轨有利于缩小消费差距。数字普惠金融发展有助于消费潜力的释放。第四，探究了异质性企业的产品差异化路径有利于消费者福利的提升。本课题的科学意义在于构建起一个充分考虑中国宏微观经济特征的异质性消费者行为理论分析框架，探究了异质性消费者的界定、产生机制及其与宏观经济环境的相互作用，对于洞察异质性消费者行为、有效促进我国居民消费潜力释放，实现供需结构的有效匹配，提升经济增长内生动力具有重要现实意义。