大面积航班延误情景中旅客群体性事件演化机理及防控方法研究

Facing the passenger mass events in the large-scale flight delays, with characteristics of sudden strong destructive, multiplicity of influence factors, nearly no precursor, rapid diffusion, disposal difficult and so on, this project is mainly aimed at the key issues in the evolving mechanism, as well as the prevention and control of passenger mass events under the large-scale flight delay scenarios. Main contents include: (1) Based on the perspectives of group psychology and behavioral cognitive theory, the emotion evolution and behavioral decision-making mechanism of multi-group passengers under the influence of external information and emergency measures is researched; (2) Based on scenario evolution method, the passenger mass event simulation experimental platform is constructed, the model parameters are unceasingly modified through the human-computer interaction experiment, making the evolutionary simulation closer to reality; (3) Use the spatiotemporal coupling mining algorithm to study the association between various civil aviation operation data and the mass events germination characteristic parameters, which is related to the early warning of group events, and construct the group event early warning model to achieve early warning of mass events; (4) In the condition of transportation and service resources shortage, this project proposes an prevention and control method of the passenger mass incident based on the evolutionary game and gives an analysis of the evolution stability the construction control group event model using evolutionary game method, and the evolution of stability analysis, so that the generated anti control programs can effectively prevent and control the occurrence and spread of mass events. The results of the project will provide new theories and methods for effectively preventing and responding to passenger mass events in large-scale flight delay scenarios.

面向大面积航班延误情景中旅客群体性事件的突发性强、影响因素多、前兆不明显、扩散快和处置难度大等特点，本课题针对群体性事件演化机理与防控方法的关键问题展开深入研究，主要包括：（1）从群体心理学以及行为认知理论等角度研究外部信息和应急处置措施作用下多群体旅客情绪演化及行为决策机理；（2）基于情景演化方法构建群体性事件仿真实验平台，通过人机交互实验不断修正群体性事件演化动力学模型中的关键参数值，使其的演化仿真更接近于真实；（3）提出多源数据时空耦合挖掘算法，挖掘多种民航运行数据与群体性事件早期萌发特征之间的映射关系，构建群体性事件预警模型，实现群体性事件的早期预警；（4）在运输和服务资源紧缺的条件下，运用演化博弈的方法构建群体性事件防控模型，并进行演化稳定性分析，使生成的防控方案能够有效防控群体性事件的发生和扩散。课题成果将为有效预防和应对大面积航班延误情景中的旅客群体性事件提供新理论和方法。

面向大面积航班延误情景中旅客群体性事件的突发性强、影响因素多、前兆不明显、扩散快和处置难度大等特点，项目组针对大面积航班延误情景中群体性事件演化机理与防控方法的关键问题展开了深入研究，首先，从情绪感染和旅客群体行为认知的角度，解析信息误差、服务资源分配不均和应急处置措施迟缓作用下触发旅客情绪激化的关键因素集合和多航班之间旅客个体与群体情绪的传播机制，探究多群体旅客行为决策演化机理；其次，基于社会力模型构建群体性事件动力学演化仿真模型，搭建基于情景演化的仿真实验平台，通过人机相互实验不断修正群体性事件动力学演化仿真模型的关键参数值，通过群体性事件动力学演化仿真模型的不断修正和完善，探究大面积航班延误情景中旅客群体性事件动力学演化机理；基于旅客群体情绪演化与群体性事件演化机理研究，获取大面积航班延误引发旅客群体性事件的关联参数与早期萌发特征，进而，基于群体性事件关键特征参数与实际运行数据信息，采用时空耦合挖掘算法，构建多信息融合的群体性事件早期预警模型，结果显示该模型能较好地实现航班延误引发的群体性事件预警，为解决航班延误群体性事件预警提供了可量化的早期预警方法；最后，面向机场、航空公司和旅客三方基于演化博弈提出大面积航班延误情景中旅客群体性事件防控方法，得到针对事件不同演化阶段不同发展态势下航空公司和机场的最优策略组合，为相关部门的应急决策提供策略方法及指导建议。项目成果将为有效预防和应对大面积航班延误情景中的旅客群体性事件提供新理论和方法。