航空运输网络中不正常航班引发次生衍生事件的链式效应研究

The objective existence of irregular flight secondary and derivative event chain makes the irregular flight recovery become more difficult to a large extent. Focusing on irregular flight, the key issues in chain effect of irregular flight secondary and derivative events and key issues in irregular flight recovery are intensively researched, mainly include: (1) Uncertain factors in irregular flight propagation process are first analyzed, and on basis of four elements in emergency event, the structural features of irregular flight event are extracted; (2) Considering the characteristics of bi-directional and repeated propagation of irregular flight, a temporal and spatial aviation transportation network model is constructed. It unveils the effects from irregular flight to relevant flights and airports in different time buckets and different network nodes; (3) The forming mechanism and propagation law of the chain effect of irregular flight on its secondary and derivative events are explored using event chain theory. An analytical model of chain effect of irregular flight secondary and derivative events is set up; (4) Inspired by irregular flight secondary and derivative event chain optimization model for reduction strategy and human-machine coordination theory, an irregular flight recovery stochastic optimization model is constructed to compute a group of optimal irregular flight recovery strategies which will improve the irregular flight recovery efficiency. The research achievements can provide new theories and methods in terms of how to take precautions and response measures to irregular flight secondary and derivative events, as well as how to enhance the emergency response capability to large scale flight delay event.

不正常航班次生衍生事件链的客观存在极大地增加了不正常航班恢复工作的难度。本课题以不正常航班为中心，针对不正常航班引发次生衍生事件的链式效应及其航班恢复的关键问题展开深入研究，主要包括：（1）研究不正常航班及其波及过程中的不确定因素，并基于突发事件四要素理论研究不正常航班事件结构特征；（2）针对不正常航班在航空运输网络中双向且多次传播的特点，构建航空运输时空网络模型，刻画不正常航班在不同时间段和不同节点上对相关航班和相关机场的波及影响；（3）从事件链角度研究不正常航班及其次生衍生事件链式效应的形成机制与传播扩散规律，构建不正常航班次生衍生事件链式效应解析模型；（4）建立基于断链减灾和人机协同的不正常航班恢复随机优化模型，提高在不正常航班引发次生衍生事件链式效应情景中航班恢复的效率。课题成果将为预防和应对不正常航班引发的次生衍生事件，提升我国大面积航班延误事件的应急处置能力提供新理论和方法。

不正常航班次生衍生事件链的客观存在极大地增加了不正常航班恢复工作的难度。项目组以不正常航班为中心，针对不正常航班引发次生衍生事件的链式效应及其航班恢复的关键问题展开深入研究，分类研究了不正常航班及其波及过程中的不确定因素，并基于突发事件四要素理论分析了不正常航班事件结构特征；针对不正常航班在航空运输网络中双向且多次传播的特点，基于网络-容量流模型和蔓延动力学，构建了航空运输双层耦合交互蔓延时空网络模型，实现了针对不正常航班在不同时间段和不同节点上对相关航班和相关机场波及影响的精准刻画；并从事件链角度研究不正常航班及其次生衍生事件链式效应的形成机制与传播扩散规律，基于蔓延动力学理论构建了不正常航班次生衍生事件链式效应解析模型；采用突发事件断链减灾策略优化方法，以事件链总体风险最小为目标，建立了基于风险管控的不正常航班恢复优化模型，并使用改进的智能领域选择多启动算法进行求解，提高在不正常航班引发次生衍生事件链式效应情景中航班恢复的效率。在此基础上，搭建了航空运输网络航班延误蔓延动力学仿真平台和航班一体化恢复优化系统，通过与实际案例数据的对比分析，延误波及分析能力、航班恢复效率和运行风险管控能力都得到了较大提升，验证了本课题提出的不正常航班次生衍生事件链式效应分析方法和基于断链减灾运行风险管控的不正常航班恢复方法的可行性和适应性。课题成果将为我国不正常航班及其次生衍生事件预测预警提供新模式和方法，对提升航空运输网络中大面积不正常航班事件的应对能力具有重要的科学意义和应用前景。