碳排放权交易对碳生产率的影响效果及其传导路径：国际经验与中国选择

The impacts of carbon emission permit trading on carbon productivity decided on many aspects, including institutional design, transmission pathway and so on. Meanwhile, the research and utilization on such mechanism is expected to benefit the energy conservation and emission reduction program of China. Based on the research of free-riding process among factors of production and duality of energy, this research will firstly try to track down nine driving sources behind carbon productivity changes of domestic and overseas. Secondly, methods including Propensity Score Matching, Synthesis Control Method and Difference-in-differences Model will be employed to figure out the effects of carbon emission permit trading of other countries and China’s pilots on carbon productivity, and then further to its driving sources. Finally, with the help of Structural Equation Model, this research will explore the pathway of how influence of carbon emission permit trading on carbon productivity is realized via institutional framework design, local factors and driving sources, so that a general transmission pathway could be built. On this basis, the research will assess the potential practical and theoretical benefits of constructing a nation-wide carbon emission permit trading market. Lessons would be extracted from the comparison of transmission pathway of carbon emission permit trading between domestic and overseas, to produce a feasible way to build China’s carbon emission permit trading market. In short, this research will try to contribute in three aspects, namely a new research perspective to reveal the deep mechanism of carbon productivity change, a new systematic research framework for studying the mechanism of carbon emission permit trading, and a new design thought for clarifying the effect of carbon emission permit trading and optimizing the implementation path.

碳交易对碳生产率的影响，取决于制度设计和传导路径通道等多个方面，揭示和驾驭这一作用机制有助于推进中国的节能减排进程。本项目首先从要素间搭便车和能源二重性的角度，将国内外碳生产率变动分解成九大动力源泉。其次，结合使用倾向得分匹配、合成控制和双重差分法，研究国外碳交易和中国碳交易试点对碳生产率及其动力源泉的影响效果。然后，使用结构方程模型，重点探讨碳交易对碳生产率的影响，是如何通过制度框架设计、本土化特征以及动力源泉进行传导的，进而构建出一种全景式传导路径。在此基础上，估算中国全国性碳交易市场的潜在现实和理论成效，并通过对比国内外碳交易的全景式传导路径，提取出国际经验，用于指导中国全国性碳交易市场的路径选择。通过本项目研究，能够提供一种揭示碳生产率变动深层次原因的研究视角，为研究碳交易的作用机理提供一种新的系统性研究框架，为明晰碳交易的实施效果、优化实施路径提供新的设计思路。

碳交易是影响碳生产率的重要影响因素之一，其影响效果取决于制度设计和传导路径通道等多个方面，揭示和驾驭这一作用机制有助于推进中国的节能减排进程。本项目在研究国外碳交易和中国碳交易试点对碳生产率影响效果与作用机制的基础上，重点研究了全国性碳交易市场的实施效果及其优化路径。本项目得到以下结论：（1）总体来看，国外碳交易有利于碳生产率的提升，并会引致良好的“波特假说”效应。（2）中国碳交易试点总体有助于碳生产率的提升，这种提升不存在时间滞后性，但存在明显的地区异质性。碳交易试点通过调整产业结构调整来提升碳生产率，而能源结构和能源强度对提升碳生产率的影响作用尚不明显。（3）从区域角度来看，在维持全国GDP总量不变的国情无约束情景下，考虑“波特假说”效应的碳交易潜在成效能够提升碳生产率24.68%。如果放松对全国GDP总量的硬性约束，并对各地区施加经济增长和环境保护的现实约束，该潜在成效能提升至33.76%。（4）从行业角度来看，受惠于全国性碳交易市场，制造业产出结构通过优化调整，可以提高碳生产率21.08%。项目还提出制造业各行业产出结构的优化方向与调整程度，精准定位补短板领域、清晰梳理去产能行业，并为优化调整后的产出规模配套适宜的投入要素。.本研究在理论上具备一定的贡献价值，能够有助于整合和丰富当前的环境经济和产业经济理论；在实践中能为国家大力推行基于市场机制的全国性碳交易市场、推进生态文明建设、创建环境友好型社会、有效缓解国际社会的减排压力提供切实可行的政策建议。.项目组在人民出版社出版专著1部，提交研究报告1份，发表内参要报1份，发表期刊论文13篇（CSSCI 检索4篇，SSCI检索4篇，其中1篇论文入选了ESI高被引论文，2篇论文被人大复印资料全文转载）、会议论文1篇，完成硕士学位论文2篇。累计获江苏省哲学社会科学优秀成果一等奖等省部级奖项五项。