气候变化下梯级电站径流响应机制及适应性调度研究

The adaptive utilization of hydroenergy, which is related to several targets such as generation, navigation and ecology, is paid widely attention under climate change. With the increment of water demand, the existing operation rules of cascaded hydropower stations must be affected if the planning of water demand exceeds the design standard of the hydropower station. Hence, it should be studied further for the adaptive operation of cascaded hydropower stations. The project is to study the runoff response mechanism and adaptive operation for the cascaded hydropower stations under climate change. Firstly, the multiple general circulation models, the multiple downscaling methods and the multiple distributed hydrologic models will be employed to simulate runoff, and the new downscaling method combined with commonly used downscaling methods will be tried to downscale the data, as well as the Bayesian theory is used to deal with the uncertainty of the simulation. Furthermore, several methods are used to analysis the spatial and temporal evolvement rule of runoff series. Secondly, according to that the navigation planning level of Jinghong segment local at the Lancang River is higher than the design level of the Jinghong hydropower station, the multi-objective adaptive operation of cascaded hydropower stations under climate change will be studied. When considered zoology or not, the variation of the operation rule of the cascaded hydropower stations before and after shipping will be studied, meanwhile, the adaption of the operation rule of the cascaded hydropower stations obtained after shipping will be tested with the future runoff series. The study is tried to gain feasible solutions for the runoff response mechanism and adaptive operation for the cascaded hydropower stations under climate change and further ensure the operation of the cascaded hydropower stations.

水能适应性利用涉及发电、航运、生态等多个方面，在当前气候变化背景下备受广泛关注。随着用水需求不断增加，若兴利目标用水需求规划超出电站设计标准，必定对梯级电站已有的运行控制方式产生一定影响。因此，亟待深入研究梯级电站适应性调度问题。本次项目申请是研究气候变化下梯级电站径流响应机制和适应性调度问题，首先拟采用多模式多降尺度多分布式水文模型开展径流模拟，尝试应用新的降尺度方法与成熟降尺度方法相结合，利用贝叶斯理论处理径流模拟过程中的不确定性，并采用多方法多维度分析径流过程时空演变规律；然后以澜沧江景洪段通航且航道规划等级高于电站设计标准为切入点，研究气候变化下梯级电站的多目标适应性调度问题。根据是否同时考虑生态问题，研究通航前后梯级电站调度规则的变化情况，并利用未来径流检验通航后调度规则的适应性。力争获得气候变化下梯级电站径流响应机制及适应性调度可行性解决方案，为应对气候变化提供重要保障。

近年来，因气候变化导致的极端气候事件频繁发生，对梯级电站的运行调度产生的影响引起了广泛关注。开展气候变化下梯级电站径流响应机制和适应性调度问题研究是应对气候变化挑战的重要举措。本项目以土地利用类型为例研究了不同下垫面对径流响应时间的影响；结合多模式在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下利用NEX-GDDP数据集获取流域未来降雨信息，因数据量有限建立分布式模型难度大，而采用一种数据驱动模型即回声状态网络开展径流模拟，获取了流域未来径流过程；针对入库流量预测不确定性问题，基于数据驱动模型和不同输入组合进行了定量评价，发现实测降雨、实测流量、预测降雨3个变输入量对数据驱动模型预测入库流量的不确定性影响最大；水库群多目标优化调度问题可经过变换转化为单目标优化问题，针对水库群优化调度问题求解，分别提出了混合量子粒子群算法和启发式约束处理技术，以及并行混沌差分演化算法，并结合算例验证了算法的有效性。相关研究进展和突破，可为气候变化下梯级电站径流响应机制及适应性调度提供可行性解决方案，为应对气候变化提供重要保障。