梯级水电站水库群发电调度风险分析方法及应用研究

Runoff prediction error, as a key risk factor of reservoir operation efficiency, is an obstacle to maximizing the utility of reservoir. For the relationship between runoff prediction error and reservoir operation efficiency has not been clearly described, it is very difficult to get the optimization schemes of reservoir operation. Under the conditions of existence of runoff prediction error, this project will take the other utilization targets such as flood control, water supply and shipping as constraints in order to reveal the connection between benefits and risks of reservoir operation. Based on the exploration of the risk factors and its space-time evolution mechanism, a lot of things will be mainly.researched when facing the problems of hydropower cascade reservoirs operation,all of them were listed as below: the stochastic simulation model of operation risk, rapid risk estimation method of operation, the coordination optimization model for risk and profit, etc. Then the risk theory and method of the hydropower cascade reservoirs operation were put forward and also the best coordination between risk and profit as well as the advanced technology for water resources utilization were sought. After being applied to the hydropower cascade reservoirs operation of Yalong River, the feasibility and validity of this model and methods were tested and verified. The mutual promotion and development between theory and practice were realized and the theoretical basis for reasonable and high efficient utilization of reservoir operation and water resources was provided. The social and economic values of this study are remarkable as well as its theoretical significance and the prospects of its application.

径流预报误差作为制约某些水库调度效益发挥的主要风险要素，其与调度效益和风险的理论关系至今尚未见有明确表述，而这一问题的解决对于获取径流不确定情况下的水库优化调度方案具有重要意义。在考虑径流预报误差情况下，为了建立调度效益和风险的对立转化关系，本项目将防洪、供水、航运等其他综合利用目标作为约束，重点针对梯级水电站水库群发电调度问题，在探求风险要素及其时空演变机理的基础上，研究发电调度风险随机模拟模型、发电调度风险快速估计方法、风险与效益的协调优化模型等。提出适用于梯级水电站水库群发电调度风险分析的理论与方法，寻求风险与效益最佳协调及水资源高效利用的先进技术，通过应用于雅砻江流域梯级水电站水库群发电调度，验证模型和方法的可行性与有效性，实现理论与实践的相互促进与发展，为水库调度及水资源合理高效利用提供必要的理论依据，其研究的社会经济价值显著，理论意义重大，应用前景广阔。

径流预报误差作为制约某些水库调度效益发挥的主要风险要素，其与调度效益和风险的理论关系至今尚未见有明确表述，而这一问题的解决对于获取径流不确定情况下的水库优化调度方案具有重要意义。在考虑径流预报误差情况下，为了建立调度效益和风险的对立转化关系，本项目将防洪、供水、航运等其他综合利用目标作为约束，重点针对梯级水电站水库群发电调度问题，在探求入库径流预报误差、水流时滞、不同类型的洪水过程等风险要素及其时空演变机理的基础上，建立了入库径流预报误差随机模型、考虑水流时滞的梯级水电站水库群短期发电优化调度模型、水火电联合调峰电力电量平衡优化模型等，提出了考虑动态洪水预见期的水库运行水位动态控制、基于Copula函数的多源径流预报误差联合分布、基于三维Copula函数的组合洪水、考虑峰型及其频率的洪水随机模拟、基于边际替代率的水库多目标调度方案决策等方法。寻求风险与效益最佳协调及水资源高效利用的先进技术，通过应用于雅砻江等流域梯级水电站水库群发电调度，验证了模型和方法的可行性与有效性，实现了理论与实践的相互促进与发展，为水库调度及水资源合理高效利用提供了必要的理论依据。