粮食主产区土地用途管制的耕地保护绩效与政策优化研究——基于农户分化的视角

It took the cropland protection performance of land use regulation as the research object of this program in the view of differentiation of the rural households. It discussed the differences and effects of cultivated land protection performance of land use regulation which was caused by different investment and efficiencies in different types of rural household including part-time peasants and large grain peasants. It analyzed the dilemma and obstacles of the policy, how to improve the performance of cultivated land protection in the facts of differentiation of the rural household, and expected to provide solid foundation for improving cultivated land protection performance and the food security, and for developing more peasants those plant large crops. The project can be divided into theoretical research and empirical research. In the theoretical part, firstly, using the deductive method, on the basis of previous research results, we developed the research hypothesis and preliminary theoretical framework; secondly, using multiple cases study, we explored the effects on cropland protection performance of land use regulation, and modify the primary theoretical framework and research hypothesis. In the part of empirical study, got micro data of rural households by sampling investigation, it evaluated the cropland protection performance of land use regulation by using Bootstrapped Data Envelopment Analysis (Bootstrapped-DEA), compared different efficiency of cropland protection performance during different types of rural households by using Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) or using Tobit regression model, analyzed the cause of the differences of performance, and theory model and research hypothesis are verified. On the basis of above, we will try to construct policy system of improving performance of cultivated land protection of land use regulation and developing new types of agricultural management subject under the background of differentiation of rural-household in major grain-producing areas.

本项目以土地用途管制耕地保护绩效提升为研究目的，探讨在粮食主产区内农户分化视角下，兼业农户和种粮大户等不同类型农户对耕地的投入、土地利用效率的差异性导致的耕地质量保护差异，分析差异的形成和影响因素及其影响机理，探讨土地用途管制耕地保护绩效提升的现实困境与障碍，研究完善土地用途管制制度和提升耕地保护绩效的政策体系，以期为保障粮食安全和培植种粮大户提供坚实的耕地投入基础。运用归纳演绎方法，对粮食主产区耕地保护和农户分化状况进行分析；运用多案例研究方法，分析评价农户分化对土地用途管制耕地保护绩效产生的影响；运用自助抽样的数据包络分析法，测算土地用途管制的耕地保护绩效；运用分层线性模型或Tobit模型比较不同类型农户的耕地保护效率，分析其产生绩效差异的原因。在上述基础上，构建粮食主产区农户分化视角下土地用途管制耕地保护绩效提升和农户产能提高，促进种粮大户等新型农业经营主体发展的政策体系。

随着中国社会经济的发展和土地市场化改革的推进，“严守耕地保护红线，严格土地用途管制”变得尤为重要。本研究运用归纳演绎方法，对粮食主产区耕地保护和农户分化状况进行分析；运用多案例研究方法，分析评价农户分化对土地用途管制耕地保护绩效产生的影响；构建了粮食主产区内土地用途管制的耕地保护绩效提升和促使农户产能提高的政策体系。随着研究的深入和推进，研究的范畴略有延伸和扩充：（1）粮食价格的波动，直接影响农户的农业经营性收入，从短期的调节机制来看，又会反作用到农户对土地的使用行为上，当粮食价格低于农户预期时，会使农户减少下一期对土地方面的劳动投入或更加粗放的利用土地。（2）农村劳动力的快速老龄化，直接影响到农业的劳动力供给，也会作用在对土地的利用强度、投入的劳动时间上。该课题的逐步推进也让我们更好的认识和了解了自己的研究兴趣与潜力，对后续研究的拓展提供了很大的帮助。