要素歧视、经济溢出与可持续发展—农村转移劳动力价格扭曲及其影响研究

The migration and employment of rural surplus labor from country to city and between different regions has been the most vital social economic phenomena in China since the Reform and Opening up 30 years ago. The migration of rural labor force represents an effective resource allocation and rapid development of China's economy. It gives impetus to rural economy and increases peasants' income to some extent. Although labor force migration promotes economic growth, it leads to long-term wage distortion in the rural labor market and a dual labor market structure between urban and rural China. The wage distortion, giving China a comparative cost advantage, plays an important role in China's participating in international trades and developing manufacturing industry (export processing industry in particular)..The spillover effect of labor force migration on factor distortion makes great contributions to China's economic development, however, the rural labor force is not properly compensated for its contribution. This project will analyze the origin and trend of wage distortion of rural migration labor force (RMLF), study wage distortion level of RMLF and its key influencers, and quantify the spillover effect of labor force migration on wage distortion and its associated contribution to China's economic growth. Based on this, the research will provide guidance for increasing peasants' income, compensating for the development of agricultural and rural economy, achieving harmonization in development of city and country, and formulating strategic trajectory..More importantly, China's experiencing a gradual transition to an older age structure and the demographic dividend which promotes the economic development will disappear eventually. Thus it becomes increasingly difficult for the dual labor market structure based on factor distortion to support the long-run economic growth. The comparative advantage of cheap labor force, on which China's economic development relies, will decline or even disappear. The separated urban and rural labor markets must unite into one integral labor market regardless of the differences between urban and rural laborers. This is an inevitable requirement of sustainable economic growth. Therefore, this project will estimate the effect of gradually disappearing spillover on the sustainable development of Chinese economy. In addition, this project will search for sustainable, harmonized and rapid developing trajectory for Chinese economy under negative conditions such as vanishing spillover effect of factor distortion, increasing labor cost, and weakened comparative trade advantage.

对农村转移劳动力要素的歧视产生了劳动力的价格扭曲，这种扭曲的溢出效应为国民经济的发展做出了很大贡献，但并没有得到应有的补偿。本研究将运用现代经济学的理论和模型对农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的产生与变化趋势、价格扭曲的程度与关键影响因素进行考察，并量化这种价格扭曲的城乡与区域溢出效应，以及为我国整体经济发展所做的贡献，从而为提高农民收入、对农业和农村发展给予补偿、实现城乡和区域统筹协调发展提供依据。更为重要的是，随着我国人口红利正在逐步消失，建立在要素歧视基础上的二元劳动力市场对支撑经济长远发展的作用难以为继，二元分割的劳动力市场逐步向城乡统一的劳动力市场转变是经济社会发展的必然要求。因此，本研究将测度要素歧视产生的溢出效应的逐步消失对中国经济可持续发展的冲击，并寻求中国经济在要素扭曲的纠正、劳动力成本提高、贸易比较优势减弱等因素冲击下保持持续、协调发展的路径。

改革开放30年以来，农村剩余劳动力的城乡和区域转移就业是中国最重要的社会经济现象之一。农村劳动力的转移流动使资源得到了有效配置，有力推动了中国经济快速发展，加快了工业化和城镇化进程，但背后是城乡分割的二元劳动力市场结构引起的农村转移劳动力价格扭曲（包括工资、福利、社会保障等显性和隐性的歧视）长期存在。. 本项目重视价格扭曲的动态的演变过程，从宏观和微观相结合的视角构建了农村转移劳动力价格歧视的理论框架并进行了实证研究，测度劳动力价格扭曲的溢出效应及其对区域经济增长贡献的大小，量化农村转移劳动力的价格扭曲的动态演变和关键影响因素，及其对中国经济可持续增长的可能影响，完善了现有理论框架，拓展了现有文献，为相关的劳动力市场、产业政策、社会福利政策的调整提供了参考和依据。. 首先从动态的视角考察农村转移劳动力的价格扭曲演变的过程，研究发现，中国的劳动参与率下降带来劳动力市场供需变化，农村转移劳动力在城市劳动力市场上受到的歧视正在发生改变，“户籍制度”的作用在逐渐减弱，而市场调整的作用不断增强，农村转移劳动力工资与城镇劳动力工资有逐步动态趋同的趋势，虽然趋同的速度总体上不是很快，但有加速的可能。. 其次，对价格扭曲的溢出效应和影响进行了考察。构建了包含价格歧视的两区域增长模型对区域经济增长的发散和收敛进行了实证研究。转移劳动力的流动带来溢出效应，工资的扭曲在改变资本部门和劳动部门要素回报的同时又放大了这种溢出效应，使区域经济差距进一步扩大。本研究还基于嵌套LOGIT模型考查了社会保障、子女教育等隐性歧视对中国农村剩余劳动力再流转的影响. 再次，分析了影响农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的关键因素，构建了HLM 模型，实证分析职业的稳定性、人力资本结构、性别歧视与工资歧视程度之间呈现显著的负相关性。本项目还从家庭经济学的角度进行了对农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的社会经济影响进行了一些拓展性研究，比如，在价格扭曲的背景下，分析了农村家庭的职业和阶层流动情况，构建了影响城乡居民家务时间配置的理论与实证方程，对影响农村居民土地流转的行为进行了探索和比较。