去产能政策的微观机制与效应评估：基于中国钢铁行业的实证研究

This project adopts frontier approaches in empirical industrial organization and utilizes unique and detailed firm-level data on large- and medium-sized vertically-integrated steel firms in China to evaluate overcapacity reduction policy by studying the policy impact on firms' production and capacity investment decisions. The project includes three major parts: (1) The first part uses control function approach to estimate total factor productivity of vertically-integrated steel firms, explores the policy impact on productivity, and investigates the underlying sources of productivity differences by ownership (central state-owned firms, provincial state-owned firms, and private firms) with respect to government regulation, firms' internal structure, and production coordination. This part mainly aims to reveal the potentially different environment and policy constraint by firm ownership; (2) Based on the findings of the first part, we build a dynamic structural model of capacity investment that takes into account firm heterogeneity such as firm productivity, size, and ownership. In this setup, we explore firms' capacity investment strategies under overcapacity reduction policy; (3) The third part conducts counterfactual analyses to quantify the effects of overcapacity reduction policy on firm productivity, market structure, the efficiency of resource allocation across firms, and welfare. The results of the rigorous policy evaluation will provide evidence and suggestions for policymakers.

本项目以新实证产业组织方法为基础，以中国钢铁行业为研究对象，利用中国大中型联合钢铁企业独特且完备的企业层面数据，通过剖析去产能政策对企业生产调整与产能投资决策的影响，对去产能政策进行定量评估。本项目的研究内容包括三个部分：（1）准确测算钢铁联合企业的全要素生产率，探讨去产能政策影响下企业生产率的变化，并从政府管制、企业内部组织结构、生产协调性等视角深入探索不同所有制结构企业（央企、地方国企与私企）存在效率差异的原因，进而揭示其面临的不同竞争环境与政策约束。（2）基于企业生产率、规模以及所有制结构等异质性元素，构建一个完整的企业产能投资与生产调整动态结构模型，分析去产能政策对微观企业生产投资决策的影响。（3）借助结构模型，通过反事实模拟实验定量分析去产能政策对企业效率、产业组织结构、企业间资源配置效率及福利的影响，科学严谨地判断政策的合意性，为制定有效政策方案提供科学可信的依据与建议。

本项目以新实证产业组织方法为基础，以中国钢铁行业为研究对象，利用中国大中型联合.钢铁企业独特且完备的企业层面数据，通过剖析去产能政策对企业生产调整与产能投资决策的.影响，对去产能政策进行定量评估。本项目的研究内容包括三个部分：（1）准确测算钢铁联.合企业的全要素生产率，探讨去产能政策影响下企业生产率的变化，并从政府管制、企业内部.组织结构、生产协调性等视角深入探索不同所有制结构企业（央企、地方国企与私企）存在效.率差异的原因，进而揭示其面临的不同竞争环境与政策约束。（2）基于企业生产率、规模以.及所有制结构等异质性元素，构建一个完整的企业产能投资与生产调整动态结构模型，分析去.产能政策对微观企业生产投资决策的影响。（3）借助结构模型，通过反事实模拟实验定量分.析去产能政策对企业效率、产业组织结构、企业间资源配置效率及福利的影响，科学严谨地判.断政策的合意性，为制定有效政策方案提供科学可信的依据与建议。